The revolution from pre-Kyoto to post-Copenhagen (Article)

Post-Copenhagen an opportunity for winners in a low carbon economy

The situation after Copenhagen in many ways is best possible for innovative companies that can deliver low carbon solutions. No clear framework exists and the only thing we know is that significant reductions are needed. We do not know exactly, how big the reductions will be; when they will take place and; where they will take place.

Leading policy makers and scientists say that we need 80% reduction of greenhouse gases globally by 2050 and 40-50% reductions in developed countries by 2020.

To understand the current situation and the opportunities ahead, it is important to understand the different approaches companies have to take for a low carbon development and what kind of behaviour that different organisations and incentive structures promote.

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The revolution from pre-Kyoto to post-Copenhagen (Article)

Role: author

Summary
To understand the current situation and the opportunities ahead, it is important to understand the different approaches companies have to take for a low carbon development and what kind of behaviour that different organisations and incentive structures promote.

Four different levels of innovation can be identified, see Figure 4. The first level of low carbon innovation is when focus is on incremental improvements that reduce the company’s own problems. This is where most of the attention has been focused by policy makers, NGOs and businesses themselves. The reason for the focus is twofold: it is easily noticeable and understandable. When emissions are

discussed, people usually think about a coal power plant or just a chimney with smoke coming out. This focus makes sense for big polluters and only if incremental changes are needed.

The second level, which has got a lot of attention today, is incremental reductions through out the value chain, including all suppliers, starting from the extraction of material from nature and then also looking at the use-phase & end-use of the products. For most companies which are not the major emitters, it is in these parts where the majority of the emissions exist. Among IT companies, retailers, biotech companies and the manufacturing companies, up to 98% of the emissions cannot necessarily be associated with their own direct impact.

Still it is common for companies to aim for “climate neutral” and offset the emissions as they focus on level 1. This is a reason why offsetting might be one of the worst innovation killers today, keeping the companies on innovation level 1.

The third level is when the company acknowledge that the way they produce

things is not sustainable and instead of trying to improve unsustainable production methods, it develops solutions that become part of the solution. This can be a manufacturer of furniture that becomes a net producer of sustainable bio-energy, or a car manufacturer who builds so many wind power mills as it constructs its manufacturing plant & becomes a net producer to ensure that it puts more renewable energy on the grid than used.

The fourth level, and the most important level for the 21st century, is when the company starts to focus on what it is providing to society through its products and services. The question on this level is if the services the company provides are helping people getting a better life while helping to reduce emissions society2 then obviously the other levels are needed as well. But unless we get more companies to focus on how their core business is contributing to a low carbon economy, it will be impossible to reach the reductions needed.

Some people are afraid that focus on the core business, and solutions that company provides that can help reduce emissions in society, will distract them from the need to reduce their internal emissions. Looking at the companies that have begun to explore this area are almost leading in level 1-3 as well. Probably, because the companies that link low carbon development to their core business, requires a commitment from the CEO and the board. And if one wants to be the company that helps the customers towards a low carbon economy, it is not credible if the company has its own emissions. If anything is true, it is probably that many of the current initiatives that focus on internal emissions are distracting from effort on the higher innovation levels and not the other way around.

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From Workplace to Anyplace: Assessing the Opportunities to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions With Virtual Meetings and Telecommuting (Report)

Role: Co-author with Marco Muttazzoni, Andrea Rossi and Suzanne Pahlman

Summary
This report focuses on the opportunities to reduce the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in work-related contexts, thanks to the deployment of IT solutions that enable one or more individuals to work or collaborate remotely. In particular the report analyzes the potential associated with teleworking and virtual meetings to reduce carbon emissions from daily commuting by car and business air travel, and the conditions under which such potential could be realized. The goal of the report is to gain an understanding of the scale of the opportunities available while identifying the key drivers that may enable or hinder the full achievement of such opportunities. By analyzing different trajectories of possible future developments, this report provides insight into a future in which maximum GHG emission reductions could be achieved.

The premise for the analysis is that IT is best seen as a catalyst that can either be used in ways that reduce our environmental footprint or can be deployed within systems that ultimately result in an increased environmental footprint. Because the policy and economic environment in which IT technology is deployed largely determines its net impact on GHG emissions, this report outlines four scenarios for possible future developments, characterized by different roles and attitudes in policy makers and IT industry

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The Day Technology Saved the Planet Transformative Solutions in a Time of Crisis (article) in Technology in a Cold Climate

Role: Author 

The Project
Technology in a Cold Climate aims to engender a greater understanding among the technology sector and policy makers about the role that technologies could play in meeting the UK’s ambitions and challenges.

Summary
A revolutionary transformation of society based on new technology would allow the UK to take the lead towards a sustainable economy. This transformation would fundamentally change how the economy works and how many resources are used and in what ways, while most of the physical infrastructure would look almost identical to what is around us today.

Such a revolution is required by the “perfect storm” that increased pressure on the planetʼs resources will create, and enabled by accelerated technological developments. Approached in a strategic way, these converging trends can be directed to spur innovation and creativity on
a level that humanity has never seen before.

Instead of trying to identify specific solutions that could provide sustainable solutions, we should look to support clusters that are likely to trigger a multitude of changes. For a sustainable future three ICT clusters are particularly important:

1. Connectivity: ensuring a 21st century communication infrastructure
2. Miniaturisation: enabling ubiquitous computing (ubicomp)
3. Integration: facilitating the emergence of augmented reality (AR)

Link to full article

Link to Technology in a Cold Climate

Assessment of Global Low-Carbon and Environmental Leadership in the ICT Sector (Report)

Role: author with Simon Mingay

Summary
With increased pressure to reduce carbon emissions, enterprises are approaching this new situation in very different ways. Some are still struggling to assess their own business environmental and climate impact. Other enterprises approach the need to reduce carbon emissions among customers as an opportunity to move beyond their relatively smaller direct impact and also focus on the opportunity that low-carbon ICT services can provide. The difference in how companies approach the need for a low- carbon economy is creating a new corporate landscape where new winners and losers will emerge and where ICT customers must learn to navigate. This is an assessment of 24 of the industry's world-leading providers and an analysis of where the ICT industry is today in relation to its maturity in mitigating environmental risks and exploiting the opportunities that the need for reduced carbon emissions will create.

Key Findings

• 2008 has seen the emergence of some low-carbon "leaders" in the ICT industry. They are just starting to wake up to the risks and opportunities of climate change, and move beyond pushing a more energy-efficient device. However, on the whole, the industry has been sleepwalking toward a low-carbon economy. 2009 will see rapid progress.

• There is frequently more talking than there is action on behalf of the ICT providers. The results show those who need to make significant steps forward if their actions are to match their marketing.

• Some of the "self-professed" leaders in environmental performance have some significant weaknesses in their programs.

• Most providers still view "the environment" and "climate change" as a risk rather than as an opportunity.

• Most ICT technology providers have outsourced most, if not all, manufacturing. So looking at the vendors' performance is looking at the tip of the iceberg — which is further compounded by most of those vendors only looking at the environmental performance of their Tier 1 suppliers.

• Service organizations are quite immature in their environmental programs and their innovation for a low-carbon economy.

• There is a lack of interindustry partnerships to create innovative solutions to tackle high- carbon areas of the economy.

  © 2008 Gartner, Inc. and/or its Affiliates. All Rights Reserved. Reproduction and distribution of this publication in any form without prior written permission is forbidden. The information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. Gartner disclaims all warranties as to the accuracy, completeness or adequacy of such information. Although Gartner's research may discuss legal issues related to the information technology business, Gartner does not provide legal advice or services and its research should not be construed or used as such. Gartner shall have no liability for errors, omissions or inadequacies in the information contained herein or for interpretations thereof. The opinions expressed herein are subject to change without notice.

• The vendors from Asia (not Japan) are still lagging behind but some have begun to put comprehensive programs in place, and it is likely that they will move rapidly to the front in this area, driven by the urgent needs for low-carbon solutions in their domestic markets.

• Fifteen of the 24 providers invited to participate did so, which is a good level of commitment from the industry. However, nine providers chose not to participate. With one exception, we believe that reflects their immaturity in environmental and low-carbon leadership.

• This is a rapidly changing area.

Link to report

Fund Management in the 21st Century: The role of sovereign wealth funds in contributing to a low carbon future.

Role: Co-author

Next steps for investors in transition to low carbon economy

SRI is still a young field with a huge potential for development of more sophisticated approaches, products and indices for the environmentally-conscious investor. While mainstream investors have in excess of 50,000 indices in which to invest, SRI investors have only around 10013 . Several leading fund management companies have started to develop innovative new solutions that not only promote greenhouse gas emissions reductions but also provide new business opportunities. Even so, the severity of the climate change challenge requires even more action from the investment community in the near future. This is where SWFs can step in and take a leadership role to move the investment community in the right direction. Figure 5 below provides a summary of how SWFs can take the next step to ensure a low carbon future by encouraging innovation in sustainability.

Link to the report

Indian Companies with Solutions that the World Needs (Report)

Role: Co-author with Sachin Joshi, Seema Arora and  Shirish Sinha

Summary
This report, ‘Indian Companies with the solutions that the World Needs’, builds on the previous report “Indian Companies in the 21st Century” by WWF and explores in a more detailed manner how some companies in India are understanding and responding to changing sustainability trends through innovation and business strategy.1

The five in-depth case studies and two examples in this report include companies from diverse economic sectors that have varied economic, social and environmental concerns and impacts. Nevertheless, they contain some common threads and lessons that can be applied in different contexts. The case studies capture key initiatives and identify important ways in which sustainability has affected the drivers of business competitiveness and success: access to markets, operational efficiency, access to capital or superior reputation, and most importantly innovation.

Recent years have seen a growing range of economic, social, environmental and governance issues push into the mainstream of politics and business. The priorities for action emerging from a range of summit meetings - such as the G8 and the World Economic Forum - tend to share one common characteristic: they all relate to current market failures or dysfunctions.

While most sustainability challenges – such as income disparity, loss of biodiversity and assosiated impacts - are not new; globalisation has directly or indirectly exacerbated many problems to a degree where many of these questions are now dealt with as matters of global and national security, e.g. climate change and food prices. Information technology is propelling increased awareness about the scope of societal needs and the lack of progress to date by governments and traditional non-governmental organisations. Businesses, civil society and governments, once considered strange bed-fellows, are now working together to resolve some of the most chronic problems.

This trend was implicit in the 2008 agenda of the World Economic Forum annual meeting at Davos, which closed with a call by business, government and civil society leaders for a new brand of collaborative and innovative leaders to address the challenges of globalisation, particularly the pressing problems of conflict, terrorism, climate change and water conservation.2

Business, political and civil society leaders at the World Economic Forum’s India Economic Summit 2007, called on India to focus on skills development, improving governance, upgrading of education, forging public- private partnerships in infrastructure and addressing environmental degradation and water scarcity to sustain the high growth the country requires.

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保定/Baoding: A global “Electric Valley” for sustainable energy production? (Report)

Role: author with Rasmus Reinvang, Chen Dongmei, Stefan Henningsson, Hongpeng Lei, Li Junfeng, Ma Lingjuan, Liu Minglian, and Wang Ying

Comment
This is the simple version that does not look into the future and estimate the significant potential for Baoding to contribute to global GHG reduction from export of smart solutions. What is interesting is that these very significant contributions were still an underestimation. Still today Baoding is one of the few cities in the world that have estimated their global climate contribution though export of low-carbon solutions.  

Summary

China is the factory of the world providing us with a large variety of products at an affordable price. Lowering prices on renewable energy and energy efficiency products is also a key issue in our battle to mitigate climate change.

Baoding is recognized by the Chinese Government as a first and only industrial base for development of China’s new energy sector. The world needs a dramatic increase in renewable energy if we are to be able to secure a sustainable energy supply for the global economy and avoid dangerous climate change. Baoding is therefore a key to global sustainable development.

This is an introduction to Baoding providing an overview of Baoding’s rapid development, potential future role, some preliminary results and assessments, as background for a visit to Baoding by China Council (CCICED) and OECD embassies in Beijing.

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Creating the First Sustainable Innovation Zone: SIZ (Leaflet)

Role: Project supervisor

Summary
The Sustainable Innovation Zone, SIZ, is an internal HP web portal engaging employees to share ideas on ICT applications that can help reduce CO2 emissions. Rather than focusing on how HP can reduce its own environmen- tal impact, the SIZ focuses on how HP can help custo- mers reduce their carbon footprint by using HP solutions.

The SIZ promotes ICT applications that signi cantly reduce CO2 emissions, the use of resources and improve service quality.

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Re-think China's Outward Investment Flows (Report)

Role: Co-author with Baijin Long

Summary
Two hundred years ago, China was the largest economy on earth, and in a few decades, the country will most certainly reclaim that position. There can therefore be little doubt that the future of China will shape the global economy; the question is, in what direction?

This report sets out to examine one of the greatest challenges in the 21st century, namely, how to combine global economic development and a sustainable use of natural resources.

The objective is to encourage a constructive discussion regarding the rapidly increasing outward investment flows from China, from a global sustainability perspective. The report explores the roles of the different actors involved and the manner in which the underlying trends driving this outward investment can be directed to ensure sustainable resource use.

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Arab Companies in the 21st Century (Report)

Role: Co-author with Tareq Emtairah and Suzanne Påhlman

Summary
The study, undertaken in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), is inspired by a series of initiatives undertaken by WWF with an intention to identify and to work with various proactive key players in emerging economies of the world like India,

China, Russia, Brazil and South Africa. This study focuses on the scope and potential for companies in the UAE and the rest of the Arab world to emerge as leaders in investment and export of sustainable goods and services, as well as becoming a key international actor in promoting and supporting sustainable development.

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Saving the Climate @ the Speed of Light: First Roadmap for Reduced CO2 Emissions in the EU and Beyond -A Joint Initiative of ETNO & WWF

Perhaps the first official report to assess the avoided emission potential for ICT solutions. Published in 2006

Link to report

Indian Companies in the 21st Century (Report)

Role: Co-author with Mohmmed Saqib and Rajesh Sehgal

Summary
In a situation where the world requires innovative companies to address
the serious global challenges faced by humanity, including high resource consumption, pollution, population growth, demographic and geopolitical changes, India, with its rapidly changing business environment, may indeed prove to be one of the most important countries on the planet over the next several decades.5

This report shows that there exists significant interest within the Indian business sector in sustainable development and innovative solutions that can be applied to achieve this goal. The approaches utilised in this regard by lead- ers in the Indian corporate sector are well ahead of many of their western counterparts, which are often, and often erroneously, viewed as leaders in the eld of corporate social responsibility (CSR). A number of common denominators exist within the progressive approach of these Indian companies, and these have been collectively referred to by one Indian company as “third generation CSR”.

This third generation CSR is an approach where companies look to ensure that their core businesses deliver sustainable development results. This dif- fers from the rst generation of CSR, that looked at philanthropy as one way of using pro ts, and the second generation that was searching for ways of minimizing the negative impacts of the companies’ operations.

The most important element of the third generation CSR is that it examines the core activities of a company and determines means by which the company can evolve in order to ensure that it contributes to welfare, even if this does not translate into immediate returns. This approach means that environmental and social concerns are the starting point for the business activity, as opposed to being factored in at the end. Rather than compromising on pro t, companies provide information that allows government to proactively change business regulations in order to reward companies which deliver on social and environ- mental objectives, such as reducing the use of natural resources.

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Chinese Companies in the 21st Century (Report)

Role: Co-author with Peng Lei and Baijin Long

Summary
This report is based on a survey of 182 of the largest and most important Chinese companies. WWF would like to highlight the following summarized results and outline possible steps forward.

1. A significant minority (22%) of Chinese companies say they are going beyond current regulation and some (13%) are even suggesting tougher rules. Many of these companies also have concrete suggestions that could help China become a leader in the provision of sustainable goods and serv- ices, not only in China but also for the rest of the world, and thereby move beyond the existing CSR discussion.

2. While one group of companies takes environmental issues seriously and is proactive, a large group could be described as almost hostile to environ- mental issues and do not even want to engage in discussions. 39% of respondents said “many” or “very many” Chinese companies were breaking the law, and 57% said companies were trying to lower standards.

3. There is a need to develop domestic solutions that support export of prod- ucts and services that help the environment, according to 78% of the com- panies surveyed.

4. 85% think traditional Chinese philosophical concepts like “union of nature and man” could help both Chinese and foreign companies become more environmentally friendly. 96% thought that the “circular economy”, a modern concept used widely in China today, also could be of help.

5. 85% of the companies said there is a need for stronger rules for environ- mental reporting, transparency and monitoring for large companies. Only 2% said there wasn’t and 13% said they didn’t know.

6. 53% said they would be willing to engage with NGOs like WWF in discus- sion about how sustainable development can be promoted, even though NGOs are not yet key actors in China and for many Chinese companies the idea of policy work with NGOs is new.

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IT and sustainable development: Swedish Government established a Forum for IT and environmental issues (Report)

Role: co-author with Ewa Thorslund

Summary
In 2001, the Swedish Government established a Forum for IT and environmental issues with a mandate lasting until December 2003. The Forum’s purpose was to provide a natural platform for information and communication technology (ICT) and ecologically sustainable development. The Forum is run by a work group comprising representatives of the industrial and research sectors, the Swedish Environmental Protection Agency (Naturvårdsverket), ministries and environmental organisations.

The Swedish Environment Minister, Lena Sommestad, was appointed Chairperson of the Forum. The Forum’s aim was to analyse how increased use can be made of IT applications to promote sustainable development, and how various actors can be encouraged to contribute to this goal. The group’s mandate included studying ways in which IT use can contribute to the development of new infrastructures and products and services with lower resource consumption and environmental impact. The Environmental Protection Agency was responsible for the Forum’s secretariat. The present document was written by Dennis Pamlin and Ewa Thorslund within the framework of the Forum.

Link to report

IT och en hållbar utveckling: Svenska regeringens forum för IT och miljö (Report)

Role: co-author with Ewa Thorslund

Comment
Jag tror detta var första gången som svenska regeringen tillsatte en grupp för att studera förhållandet mellan hållbarhet och ICT (men inte den sista). Jag var i slutet av skrivandet av "Sustainability at the speed of light" då processen påbörjades så jag tyckte det passade perfekt. Jag trodde att detta skulle bli ett politiskt genombrott för ICT/hållbarghet, men i princip inget hände. Jag har blivit allt mer försiktig att delta i processer där allt som händer är att människor möts och skriver en rapport som inte resulterar i något. Med tiden har jag förstått att det är en hel industri med grupper som försörjer sig på att stödja processer som inte är tänkta att resultera i något mer än att bekräfta dagens situation. 

Summary
Regeringen tillsatte under 2001 ett forum för IT och miljö med mandat till december 2003. Syftet med forumet var att skapa en naturlig plattform för informations- och kommunikationsteknik (ICT) och ekologiskt hållbar utveckling. Arbetet bedrivs genom en arbetsgrupp med företrädare för både industri, forskning, Naturvårdsverket, departement samt representanter från miljöorganisationer.

Miljöminister Lena Sommestad utsågs till ordförande i forumet. Målet för forumets arbete är att kartlägga hur IT-tillämpningar i högre grad kan utnyttjas för att minska miljöpåverkan och främja en hållbar utveckling, och hur man kan stimulera olika aktörer för att nå detta mål. I gruppens mandat ingick att särskilt studera de möjligheter som IT-användningen ger åt framväxten av ny infrastruktur samt produkter och tjänster som tär mindre på resurser och miljö. Naturvårdsverket ansvarade för forumets sekretariat. Följande dokument har utformats av Dennis Pamlin och Ewa Thorslund inom ramen för ovanstående forum.

Länk till rapport

GRI Telecommunications Sector Supplement (Paper)

Role: co-author with Sean Gilbert, Michael Kuhndt, Edoardo Gai, Dunstan Hope, Danilo Riva, Chris Tuppen, et.al

Comment
This was the first time "net-positive"/ "climate positive" effects of ICT was included in an international framework I think. Even 15 years later it is ahead of the GHG-protocol, CDP and others that dominate how companies should report (as they stick to only the "reduction" perspective). This is about to change, but as of 2017 the focus is still 99% on the reductions and not how companies can deliver what is needed. 

Summary
GRI is pleased to release the pilot version of the Telecommunications Sector Supplement for use in conjunction with the GRI 2002 Sustainability Reporting Guidelines (‘the Guidelines).

In 2001,GRI launched its supplement programme in response to consistent feedback on the importance of sector-specific guidelines built on the foundation of the Guidelines. GRI supplements capture issues essential to sustainability reporting in a specific sector, but which may not appear in the Guidelines since they are relevant primarily for a specific range of reporting organisations or sectors. By developing both the Guidelines and sectoral supplements, the GRI framework supports the comparison of reporting organisations both across within and across sectors.

Link to paper

WSIS PREP-COM-2 Contribution (Paper)

Role: co-author with Chris Tuppen, et.al

Comment
This was the first attempt at trying to change an international framework and I was surprised to learn how willing policy makers were to acknowledge the potential for ICT to deliver significant contributions (and this was many years before we saw the kind of major impacts that we are used to now). I also explored the gaps between internatinal commettments and national implementation.  

Summary
This contribution puts forward a series of issues that should be reflected in the WSIS summit Declaration and Plan of Action.

Increasing population, economic activity and consumptive lifestyles are placing unsustainable burdens on the earth's natural systems and finite resources. Creating prosperity through much less wasteful and harmful use of resources has been identified as the over-arching sustainable development challenge.

Enhanced connectivity enables people to transact businesses from home, saving commuting time, energy and pollution from transportation. Trends in ICT towards miniaturization of components, and its capacity to monitor resource and energy use through production processes, can greatly reduce environmental and economic costs. Mobile networks are allowing whole phases of 'hard-wired' infrastructure development to be 'leapfrogged' in many parts of the world."1

We suggest that it is essential for the WSIS to consider the Sustainability Implications of the Knowledge Society. In particular we suggest that the environmental dimension has not yet been given sufficient weight alongside the social and economic dimensions.

This proposal is therefore for sustainable development to be explicitly included in the Declaration of Principles and the Plan of Action to be adopted by the World Summit on the Information Society

The key elements of this contribution to WSIS address the following themes:

•  Sustainability Implications of the Knowledge Society (new theme)

• International Cooperation

• Opening the Gates and Overcoming the Digital Divide

• Services and Applications

Link to contribution

Sustainability at the Speed of Light (Book)

Role: author/editor

Comment
After the climate meeting in Kyoto and assessing other sustainability trends it became clear that more than incremental improvements are needed.  The technology and sector that I thought was best positioned to deliver this sustainable disruption was the ICT sector.

After a few years of trying to get governments, companies (outside the ICT sector) and NGOs to understand the potential of digitalisation without much success I decided to put the ideas together in a book to make a very complicated issue easier to access. It was interesting as most people agreed that it was important, but very few felt they could do anything. So the five years after the book I focused on integrating an ICT aspect in all strategies and processes that I thought were important. There are many interesting stories around the process, and I learned a lot about how different people approach change and new ideas.  

First two sentences
For the past few years, information technology and the so-called new economy have been intensely discussed. Many different views exist, but there is no doubt that over the next couple of years information and communication technologies (ICT) will come to affect and reshape most parts of our society. Whether we like it or not, ICT will radically influence transport patterns, energy consumption, overall resource usage and, to an unknown degree, our culture and even the way we perceive the world, our relationship to it, and our actions as dictated by these new mores.

Although ICT will have an enormous effect on tomorrow’s society, surprisingly little research has been conducted regarding its future environmental consequences. Most of the work that has been done has reached one of two conclusions: either ICT will bring only good things, from solutions to world hunger and the elimination of all transportation problems to a revitalised democracy; or ICT will bring nothing but problems, accelerating resource consumption, introducing new toxic materials and resulting in greater inequity by introducing a digital divide that will worsen the already unequal distribution of wealth and influence.

The first challenge, if we want to tackle the challenges surrounding ICT for the future, is to go beyond this polarised perspective.

Link to the book in PDF