Reflections are only that, reflections, nothing more nothing less. Often these reflections are related to books I read, but occasionally also other things. These are often written very late, very fast,  using notes from my mobile phone, so the grammar and spelling is horrible.



TOWARDS GREEN ICT STRATEGIES: Assessing Policies and Programmes on ICT and the Environment. OECD study reveals a blind spot


OECD recently released a new study “TOWARDS GREEN ICT STRATEGIES: Assessing Policies and Programmes on ICT and the Environment”. There is a lot of interesting material in this and OECD should be congratulated for carrying out this task (not the least mapping the governments and industries focus with regards to ICT.

The focus on ICT as a problem “Green the ICT (2%)” is very dominating, while the more important area “Greening with ICT (98%)” is still very much ignored. (See the graph for governments here and the graph for industry here)

A closer look would most certainly reveal an even more unbalanced picture if the resources spent on 1st and 2nd effects (2%/98%) was presented. Most initiatives that I know of in the list that state “both” will spend 80-90% on “Green the ICT (2%)”. Some of the Government initiatives are not really in the “Greening with ICT (98%)” area even though they have said that this is their focus. Others such as Greenhouse Gas protocol have begun to look at the possibility, but their current standard have no real focus on the secondary order effects.

Maybe also interesting is that Governments seem slightly ahead of the whole ICT industry when it comes to “Greening with ICT (98%)”, unfortunately this is often only related to research and not so much actual initiatives that support accelerated uptake.

It is worth noting that no (zero) global initiative, neither business nor industry, is dedicated to the “Greening with ICT (98%)”. But very many are only looking at “Green the ICT (2%)”.

When will the first global initiative be launched that is dedicated to promote the uptake of low carbon ICT solutions, i.e a clear 98% focus?

China Daily OP-ED: Five ways to make the world a better place

From today's China Daily. Look forward to discuss these in more detail when I go to China next (end of July). Again a great illustration. Will we be able to see that companies can be both the main solution and the main problem to the Climate Challenge? Supporting the winners is now more important than hunting the bad.

Five ways to make the world a better place
By Dennis Pamlin (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-06-12 07:49

The first World Business Summit on Climate Change ended in Copenhagen recently, where the world's leading companies were supposed to send a clear message to politicians across the world, but they failed.

The idea was great, but the outcome was full of vague statements and shameless requests for money to continue with unsustainable business practices. This was in great contrast to parts of the actual conference where I saw some really interesting ideas and sustainable business examples, some of them from Chinese companies, but more about that later.
One of the ironies of the fight against climate change is that many of the companies, including Chinese, most vocal at climate discussions are part of the problem. Of course, we should listen to such companies, too. But we must realize that slavery would have probably existed today if politicians back then had listened to recommendations of firms that were making the chains the slaves were forced to carry. Even if such firms conceded the need to change they would still try to find excuses and delay action by presenting improved products - for example, chains for slaves or purportedly less-polluting goods.
The global market is changing fast and a naive market fundamentalism has not only been destroying the planet and widening the income gap, but also undermining the economic values of society. It is time we understood that companies come and go as society changes, and there's no need for us to go overboard to save a company once it has ceased to deliver what society needs. The Stone Age did not end because we ran out of stones.
Today's companies need to move away from fossil fuel before we burn up all the coal and oil. Technology has the power to bring to us the services that the polluting and dangerous fossil fuel has been providing by using clean energy.
China has the unique opportunity to support tomorrow's companies and ensure that those defending outdated business models do not get importance. This is especially important because China has some of the best and worst companies existing side by side. The worst are as greedy as the greediest Western companies. They are also non-transparent and unwilling to engage in dialogue with civil society. Many of them are active in the extractive industries, and have been driven outside China because of their development has been resource inefficient. On the other hand, China also has some of the most interesting and progressive companies, which can help reduce the need for natural resources.
During the World Business Summit two firms were especially striking: China Mobile and Suntech. They provided a breath of fresh air, and focused on their core business and what is needed for low-carbon solutions. The two belong to a group that can be called "climate positive" companies. The more these companies sell their products, the more they help the world reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emission.
The "climate-positive" contribution of solar-power firms is easy to understand because the more solar panels the world uses the less GHG it emits. But smart IT solutions from companies like China Mobile are a bit more complex. They are nonetheless no less important than renewable energy because low-carbon IT solutions can allow many people to live good lives without destroying the planet. Smart working solutions that allow people to reduce traveling by car, and smart control of lights and air-conditioning are just a few examples that can help build a harmonious society.
In order to support low-carbon economy and turn the need for reduced emissions into an opportunity, as well as to help the Copenhagen UN Climate Change Conference in December yield a good result, China could initiate a low-carbon innovation policy package. The package would require a significant change from existing climate policies, both in China and the world beyond. As a start, China could introduce five simple, but groundbreaking, policies.
The first and probably most important step would be to officially recognize a group of companies that is or could be "climate positive". These companies should be encouraged to report how much GHG the increased use of their products and services would reduce. Representatives from this group should be invited to comment on all policy developments. The government could even move this group to the forefront of the fight against global warming to redefine the way the problem is approached. It could also accord these firms a role in global negotiations.
The second step would be to pay special attention to transformative solutions that reduce GHG emissions by 90-99 percent. This would encourage innovative solutions such as smart buildings that produce the energy they need, video conferencing, e-paper and smart work solutions - for example, a person could work from home, if need be, instead of driving his or her car to office. The focus on transformative solutions will encourage smart nanotech solutions that would play a defining role in the 21st century, and thus China could lead the rest of the world in the fight against climate change.
The third step would be to announce a plan for 21st century infrastructure. Most of the infrastructure expenditure in China is still on environmentally inefficient structures, roads, airports, and oil and coal exploration. It's high time China shift its focus and ensure expenditures are diverted toward fiber optic cables, broadband, smart buildings that can produce their own electricity, electric cars, fast trains and renewable energy. The government could create an index to track such expenditures and help the companies collaborate to build the "new infrastructure".
Four, the country would require an eight-year fossil-free plan from all major companies because the pace of climate change is faster than thought earlier. The plan would indicate how ready companies are for a low-carbon economy. By asking for a plan that requires companies to be fossil-free in eight years the government would be encouraging innovation. This can be a climate stress test, similar to the test for banks that the US government carried out earlier this year. If it's possible to conduct a test to see if banks are in good economic shape, then it should also be possible to see whether companies are ready for one of the most important shifts in human history.
Five, China could become the first country in the world to set export targets both in yuan and GHG reduction value. This would require the government to develop a methodology to assess the GHG cuts from smart exports. In fact, the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences is already working on this.
China has the chance to approach a challenge in a way that could turn it into an opportunity. The five suggestions would propel it to the forefront of the fight against global warming. Many countries and groups would support it if the ideas were to become reality. The proposals fit well with current policies and would show that China is not following in the unsustainable footsteps of the West.
The author is advisor for various environmental organizations.
(China Daily 06/12/2009 page9)

From General Motors to General Mobility: Goodbye 20th century and hello 21st century when GM dies and Cisco emerge

Will 8th of June be seen as the day US shifted focus from a 20th century infrastructure to a 21st century infrastructure? Can the restructuring of GM and the increased role of IT companies crate a new industrial map in the US?

Just a week after Ericsson and China Mobile discussed the need for a stronger focus on the 21st century infrastructure (not just the 20th century) at the World Business Summit on Climate Change it became public that the Dow Jones Industrial Average will begin including Cisco Systems on its list of 30 major stocks selected to reflect the overall U.S. stock market. The date this will happen is June 8...

If the US government turns what is left of GM to a sustainable company this could be part of one of the biggest transitions in modern industrial history. For this to happen the US government must move beyond the incremental thinking that other countries have demonstrated (Sweden for example that only think about slightly better cars). General Motors must be turned into General Mobility. The company that is re-emerging must focus on service not products. It is not good enough to just make better cars, even if they are electric or fuel-cell cars. A company in the 21st century must focus on sustainable provision of services for a global market.
The transition from General Motors to General Mobility should:
- Include strategies the also allow for virtual mobility (don't see the 21st century infrastructure as a competitor, but one part of the offering to customers)
- Ensure that the solutions developed support sustainable cities of the future (The way cities develop will decide if we can move out of a high-carbon/resource intensive lock-in or not. By just putting more cars on the road we will not be able to create sustainable cities)
- Adopt a global market perspective. Don't only look at the short-term demand in the rich part of the work (that kind of perspective will result in SUV's and other non sustainable solutions). Ensure that the company can offer solutions that can be used all over the world.
- Create solutions in collaboration with other companies (IT, public transport, renewable energy providers, etc) to help move away from the "car" focus.
- Support a model where people don't own cars, but rent them as they need them (Smart car use)
This could be historic, or it can become a minor change that does not result in any significant change... The people at GM, providers of sustainable mobility solutions and the US government have the opportunity, all that is needed is leadership. It can be done...
The illustration is from a tool that soon will become public.

High-level OECD Conference for ICTs, The Environment and Climate Change: High demand for calculating CO2 savings from low carbon ICT solutions

Quite a number of interesting presentations during the High Level OECD conference for ICT, the Environment and Climate Change. But what was really great was that we were allowed to arrange a last-minute side event about how calculations to assess the savings from low carbon ICT solutions should look like. I expected 4-5 people to turn up but over 20 people came to discuss and most with concrete ides and projects. Will put together a short questionnaire and collect the different initiatives.

Just during the 20 minutes there was a number of interesting projects presented. On the more practical level I particularly liked the new Japanese initiative with “Eco-points”. This is an innovative approach that could be further developed to ensure that efficiency measures will result in low-carbon feedback (investment in efficient solutions that reduce GHG emissions result in further reductions) instead or high-carbon feedback (often called negative rebound effects).

That ICT companies are starting to get their acts together was demonstrated by NEC. Botaro Hirosaki, Senior Executive Vice President, NEC gave an interesting presentation and included a slide where he showed that they formulated a vision already in 2003 to contribute with as much savings in society as they emit themselves. I hope they will aim for climate positive beyond that. (See picture for NEC slide).

Beside that it was great to hear The OECD Secretary-General, Angel Gurría talk about the need for ICT to deliver a low carbon development. He was very clear about the key role of ICT as a transformative technology. In a similar way Esko Aho, Executive Vice President, Nokia; Former Prime Minister of Finland also gave a very good presentation (in stark contrast to his colleague representing Digital Europe at ICT4EE in Brussels, see earlier blog). He also noticed that ICT is often forgotten and made a reference to the latest paper from Stern that totally ignored ICT as part of the low carbon solution.

It is fantastic to see this high-level support that only a year ago was not really there, but it is obvious that it will difficult to get a solution agenda accepted before the COP15. As COP15 will be a failure and not deliver anything close to the kind of solutions we need (unless something very unexpected happens) it is even more important to prepare for the post COP15 discussions. A Climate Positive agenda will help to ensure that policy makers and the general public realize that a rapid transition to a low carbon economy is not only possible, but will be an exciting journey with companies that are see a sustainable future as an opportunity and create job opportunities (This is sharp contrast to most car and power utilities today do).

PS
I really want to thank Graham Vickery from OECD and Henrik Kjaer from the Danish National IT and Telecom Agency, as they arranged for the small calculation event to get squeezed in the last minute into an already very tight schedule.

The Copenhagen Call: A reactive outcome with light in the tunnel

Let’s hope that the call from the World Business Summit on Climate Change is not setting the standard for the outcome at COP15 in Copenhagen. The “Copenhagen Call” is a document that is vague and seem to adopt a lowest common denominator approach. Much better papers have been written by all the organizations that have been working in the process, except for 3C (WBCSD, WEF, The Climate Group all have much better and detailed proposals that could have helped to move the issue forward).

The one organization that is as bad as the outcome is 3C, but I hope it is not Swedish Vattenfall that is responsible for the poor outcome [UPDATE: Just saw that Vattenfall got this prize]. But with the single-minded focus on CCS and a global price on carbon it is not unlikely. Maybe it was Mondag Morgon, the small Danish consultant company that took on a bigger task than they could manage and maybe even was looking more for money than an outcome that would make a difference for one of the greatest challenges humanity faces. Most likely is probably that too many people was involved with the purpose of pushing a single issue and the result was a mix that did not make much sense. Again we see an example of what happens when leadership is lacking.

On the optimistic side it shows that those in denial that Climate Change is real are left behind. Now we need to focus on separating those that are serious from those that engage in green washing. We know that this vague statement stand against very detailed anti-climate lobbying. The conference itself was really bad prepared and the “call” that was presented was not even presented as a draft for those participating. That was very unfortunate as many of the companies participating at the summit could have contributed text. Text that it would have been very hard to resist if the process was transparent. And if good suggestions were killed it would be clear to everyone who the companies were that killed these ideas.

One clear example of how afraid the current companies are for a solution approach is the way reporting of emissions was dealt with. In the Copenhagen Call reporting about emissions was dealt with as a problem… The following was suggested by a number of solution driven companies but was ignored:
"Business, cities and states should be encouraged to report, not only their own emissions, but also their contribution to reductions in other parts of the economy. This would allow for climate positive reporting and catalyze action among companies that have solutions that can help reduce GHG emissions significantly, but are not big emitters (such as many IT biotech and renewable energy companies).”

The fact that a business conference ignores a simple suggestion that opens up the door for those with solutions is strange. My guess is that it is either depend on the old thinking among the organizers, or that utilities like Vattenfall don’t want policy makers know that there are much cheaper and smarter solutions that CCS that the world should focus on.

The contrast between the fact that good suggestion was not even discussed and the process almost total lack of transparency is especially interesting as lobbying was one of the few issues that triggered a really dynamic discussion. It was refreshing to hear the last panel engage in a heated debate about the destructive role of business lobbyist.

For governments a statement that don’t have actual companies signing under on the call is hard to use when companies are knocking on their door threatening to leave the country unless they are allowed to continue to pollute. As we move forward I hope we will se more concrete suggestions from companies with sustainable low carbon solutions.

The text it is not bad, just vague and shying away from the difficult questions that policy makers are wrestling with so if it was not meant to be an input to the COP15 it would not been so bad. Kunihiko Shimada was very clear and refreshing when he told the panel he was sitting in “I have not heard anything new here”. That energy efficiency is important, or that low carbon technology should be supported has been well known since before 1997.

A future "call" from business should include at least the following:

  • 100% CO2 reduction by 2050 is supported
  • 50% by 2020 from developed countries without any demand on developing countries until the rich world have demonstrated progress.
  • Climate Positive reporting from those with solutions and emission reporting from those with emissions (many companies would have both) would be mandatory from 2011.
  • Business could pay 50bn for adaptation and expect government to do at least the same.
  • A global fund for investment in 21st century infrastructure created and business (investors) will allocate 200bn per year to this fund
  • Global guidelines for public procurement that encourage a switch from products to services are supported (allowing new innovative low carbon ways to provide different services, (e.g. virtual meetings instead of flying and using laptops working outside the office instead of commuting by car.
  • Global guidelines for net producing buildings by 2020 is supported and if there are IPR challenges these will be dealt by through the 21st Century Infrastructure fund and new innovative compensation schemes.
  • Targets for solutions that help reduce emissions with 90% are necessary. These solutions should also be given preferential treatment in order to avoid many of the incremental improvements that are dominating the debate today
  • Multi-solutions must be given priority, so that solutions with the same potential for CO2 reducitons that also reduce poverty, water scarcity, etc are put in focus (so that integrated solar solutions that can provide energy and desalinate water also in poor countries are given priority over CCS).

It was encouraging that Tim Flannary, as he presented the Copenhagen Call highlighted that important issues had not been included and mentioned especially ICT. Although I think he said that “We don’t say enough about ICT”, but the truth is that nothing about ICT, biotech or renewables from a solution perspective was mentioned. Still there is an opportunity for a message that also see reduced emissions as an opportunity.

So Tim has given us second chance and the meeting brought together quite a number of CEO’s that policy makers could get really good suggestions from (these are only the companies that I heard presenting good ideas):

Carl-Henric Svanberg, Chief Executive Officer, Ericsson
Zhengrong Shi, Chief Executive Officer, Suntech Power
Steen Riisgaard, CEO, Novozymes
Girish S. Paranjpe, Joint-Chief Executive Officer, Wipro
Li Zhengmao, Executive Board Member, China Mobile
Walter B. Kielholz, Chairman, Swiss Re
Ditlev Engel, Chief Executive Officer, Vestas
Harish Hande, Co-founder and Managing Director, SELCO Solar Light
Shai Agassi, Founder and Chief Executive Officer, Better Place
David Blood, Managing Partner, Generation Investment Management
James Cameron, Vice Chairman, Climate Change Capital
Alan Salzman, Chief Executive officer, Vantage PointVenture Partners