The Silver Linings Playbook by Matthew Quick

Interesting only because I kept thinking about a situation where the story was told by Tiffany. The book is not really worth the two-three hours it takes to read it when you are too tired to read something else. Maybe if you want to phase out your TV watching this can be a first step? At the same time there is something attractive with someone who tries to see the positive things in life, but when it all ends in navel gazing and feeling sorry for yourself due to a broken relation the time spent with it feels wasted. Would be nice with a book that is this simple, but still managed to address some of our major challenges today.

China’s global image in the 21st century: New connectivity provides opportunities (Article in China Daily)

This is an article I wrote for China Daily as input to the 18th National Congress. It's about a connected world and transformative transparency. The article is available on China Daily's webpage here. Below is first the full article, and after that the version that was published.

The long/full version of the article China’s global image in the 21st century: New connectivity provides opportunities

During 2012, the year of the Dragon, China has already been featured on more global media covers than any other year according to the project chinas-global-media-image.net.  While China is now constantly discussed around the world, the image of China in global media is still dominated by China as aggressive and not open for dialogue.

With a new leadership after the 18th National Congress there is an opportunity to establish China as a dialogue partner with the help of approaches suitable for a network society.

During the next decade China’s image will not primarily be shaped by traditional media. The images of tomorrow will be shaped in a connected world where billions of people contribute. These connected people will not only be passive consumers of information, many of them will be active in shaping China’s image through different social media. In a connected world people will trust their friends more than traditional media, and the networks with most trust will decide the future image of China.

In order to influence the image China must focus on its “digital twin”. The digital twin of China is the result of what people upload and comment regarding China. Images, stories, comments, blogs, videos that people can comments and rate will shape the image of China in the 21st century much more than news articles, TV programs and radio.

The emerging connected society is not a better or worse society compared with the one we are now leaving behind, it is different. The connectivity will help improve transparency, reduce corruption, support innovation and allow people to discuss important issues, but it will also result in increased number of rumors, false information, encourage shallow gossip and anonymous bulling.

Today the global media, both traditional and new social media, is still dominated by old ideas and stereotypes about China. A noteworthy example of the old ideas dominating western media is that one of the most common images representing China is a fire breathing western dragon.

Most people outside China do not even know the difference between a western dragon and Chinese Lóng and use western dragons to represent China. As Chinese students and professional now work around the world and an increasing number of people have experience from working and studying in China there is no reason for people online to not be connected with someone with knowledge about China. Such a person can help them understand China better, including the different between an auspicious Lóng and an aggressive (western) dragon.

As China now grows stronger and more important in many areas it is important for the new leadership to demonstrate that this is for the benefit also for the world. In a connected world it is no longer enough to do good things and tell people about it, it is also necessary to engage in discussions with people around the world. If China grow stronger without active work to engage in the kind of dialogue that a connected society require, we will most certainly see a situation where China is perceived as aggressive and arrogant, not just by foreigner but also by those in China who are connected.

It is important to acknowledge that China’s re-emergence as a strong global voice will result in tensions and that there will be areas where significant differences will surface. But it is even more important to acknowledge that the major global challenges will not be able to solve without the active participation of China.

Challenges that require China’s active participation range from climate change and water shortage to antibiotic resistance and increased income differences. The fact that China is a necessary part of the solution to all major global challenges is not well known.

The preferred situation would be if the world’s dominating countries and media today would take time to learn about China and support a constructive dialogue. Unfortunately that is unlikely to happen as many of the rich countries today are in decline and therefore reactive and afraid of new ideas.

In order to demonstrate its commitment to a peaceful global development it is important that China – and those with an understanding of China – to explore ways to use the outcome from the 18th national congress as an opportunity to explore new ways to encourage dialogue. Three areas could be explored:

1. Global platform for actions for a better world China could support the establishment of a global platform where actions to help solve the global challenges in different countries are listed, rated and commented in order to establish best practice that can inspire a race to the top. Users will be able to select criteria for finding best practice in order to ensure that the platform is user driven.

In order to ensure credibility China could launch this platform together with UN organizations, leading NGOs and academics as well as a group of countries that include OECD countries, emerging countries and least developed countries.

Leading bloggers and profile in social media with high credibility in networks around the world should then be invited to provide input and suggestions regarding areas that need to be discussed. The platform could also be used as a database so that people can find example of solutions in different countries.

This kind of transparency and possibility to engage with different stakeholders would be a way to demonstrate the concrete work that China is doing as well as an opportunity to increase dialogue. Such a platform would allow China’s leading work in areas such a low-carbon development to become visible, at the same time as people have the opportunity to discuss different initiatives.

2. Global collaboration teams Many global challenges have reasonably simple solutions but countries are blaming each other rather than engaging in constructive dialogue. China could establish collaboration teams with participation from many different countries to help address global challenges from a global perspective. Today most initiatives are based on national or multilateral initiatives, something that is not optimal for global challenges.

Global teams would be able to discuss positive and negative aspects of different countries. Instead of polarizing countries they could focus on collaboration.

3. Concepts for the 21st century The challenges humanity faces in the 21st century will require concepts others than those that western countries have used to create the current international system. Few countries are home to such a treasure of concepts that can help humanity navigate complex challenges as China.

As part of a long-term discussion about values and concepts needed to guide the global development China could support an initiative to develop educational material for global citizens. Such an educational material could present different concepts from around the world and how they can help address global challenges. The first global classes with participations from all corners of the world could be part of such an initiative.

The three suggestions above are only three examples and much more can be done do establish China as a dialogue partner. We are rapidly moving into a hyper connected society where transparency and enormous amounts of information will create new opportunities as well as challenges. China has the opportunity to approach this change as an opportunity

The 18th National Congress provide us with an opportunity to take a step forward and already now we could also establish a process to evaluating the results in conjunction with the 19th National Congress in 2017.

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The shorter version in China Daily

A connected world provides opportunities to engage in dialogue to alter outdated and prejudiced views of the country.

While China is now constantly discussed around the world, it is still portrayed in the global media as aggressive and not open to dialogue.

But if the world's media took the time to learn about China and support a constructive dialogue it would see that this is not the case. Unfortunately that is unlikely to happen as many of the rich countries today are in decline and adopting a retrograde mentality. Because of this, old ideas and stereotypes about China still dominate the global media, both traditional and new social media.

However, in the coming years China's image will be increasingly shaped in a connected world, a world in which people will not only be passive consumers of information, many of them will be active providers of information through different social media. In a connected world people will trust their social networks more than traditional media, and the social networks with the most trust will create a virtual image of China.

This digital image of China will be determined by the images, stories, comments, blogs and videos posted online, rather than through the print media, television and radio. So China must pay attention to its "digital twin". In a connected world it is no longer enough to do good things and tell people about them, it is also necessary to engage in dialogue with people around the world. If China does not engage in these dialogues, its digital twin will end up distorted.

We are rapidly moving into a hyper-connected society where transparency and enormous amounts of information are creating new opportunities and new challenges. In order to overcome the challenges and seize the opportunities it is important that China, and those with an understanding of China, explore new ways to encourage dialogue so that its digital twin is not shaped to suit others' agendas.

It is important to acknowledge that China's re-emergence as a strong global voice will result in tensions and that there will be areas where significant differences will surface. But it is also important to acknowledge that the major global challenges will not be solved without the active participation of China. These challenges range from climate change and water scarcity to the growing resistance to antibiotics and poverty.

To increase dialogue and transparency, China could support the establishment of a global platform where actions to help solve the global challenges in different countries can be put forward. In order to ensure that the platform is user driven and that it selects the criteria necessary to find the best practices, it should involve governments, United Nations organizations, non-governmental organizations and academics. Moreover, leading bloggers with high credibility should also be invited to provide input and suggestions regarding the areas to be discussed.

The platform could also be used as a database so that people can find examples of effective solutions applied in different countries. As well as an opportunity to increase dialogue, the possibility to engage with different stakeholders would be a way to increase transparency and demonstrate the concrete work that China is doing.

The challenges humanity faces in the 21st century will require concepts other than those already used by Western countries in creating the current international system. Few countries are such a treasure house of concepts that can help humanity navigate the complex challenges as China.

Many global challenges have reasonably simple solutions, but rather than engage in constructive dialogue, countries choose to blame each other for being the cause of the problem. Today most initiatives are based on national or multilateral grounds, something that is not optimal for achieving practical solutions to global challenges. China could establish collaboration teams with the participation of many different countries to help address the world's challenges from a global perspective. Focusing on practical collaboration rather than polarization, would enable progress to be made on many issues.

As part of a long-term discussion about the values and concepts needed to guide global development, China could support an initiative to develop educational material for global citizens. Such educational material could present different concepts from around the world and explain how they can be used to help address global challenges. The first global classes with participation from all corners of the world could be part of such an initiative. These are only examples and much more can be done to establish China as a dialogue partner and create a digital twin that reflects the reality of China as a responsible stakeholder in the international community.

Transformative solutions through public procurement - Collaboration pilot between Sweden & India

Workshop during CII Sustainable & Inclusive Solutions Summit & Exhibition in New Delhi, 15-16 October 2012. A really good session with some interesting outcomes that will help move the pilot forward. Here is the PDF describing the pilot.

Moderator Dennis Pamlin Entrepreneur & Founder, 21st Century Frontiers

Introductory video message Lena Ek Minister for the Environment, Sweden

Speakers Jeanette Hemmingsson Project Leader, National Procurement Services , Sweden

Siva Periasamy Vice President & Chief Procurement Officer, WIPRO Limited

Suryanath Gudidevuni AVP & Head Healthcare Services, Apollo Tele Health Services (ATHS)

Suchendra Misra Director (PPD), Ministry of Finance, Government of India

Sachin Joshi Director, CII-ITC Centre of Excellence for Sustainable Development

Dual future technology matrix: an example of books adding value as a cluster

This is a brain dump that on a document that I’ve kept open for a month now. I need to move on so here it is. It is a long post where I’ve done a first attempt to show how a transformative shifts differs from a incremental by using narratives from four books. The four books are:

1. Ted Kaczynski’s “Technological Slavery” with
2. Bill Joy’s “Why the future doesn't need us”
3. Ray Kurzweil’s “The Singularity Is Near”
4. Kevin Kelly’s “What Technology Wants“

The background to this post is that I often get questions about what books I would recommend regarding different issues. I have always found the question difficult to answer and one main reason is that most interesting books are more interesting in a broader context, not on their own.

As long as the author has an interesting question and argue in a reasonably coherent way I often find the book interesting. Still most ideas presented in books do not break any new ground, but they can open up new ways of thinking when you see them in relation to ideas in other books. I picked a book that I found people had difficulty understanding the value of, “Technological Slavery”.

Ted Kaczynski’s “Technological Slavery” as part of a cluster When I discussed Ted Kaczynski’s “Technological Slavery” (Kaczynski is probably better know to many as the "Unabomber") I realized that referring to the book as interesting and well worth reading for those interested in technology´s role in society was controversial. Many seem to think that if a person gets “different enough” and have acted in ways they do not agree with, then the ideas they have written about in a book are not worth exploring, even without knowing what’s in the book.

For me the more radical a person thinking is, the more interesting it is in most cases. I understand that the way media use the word have resulted in a situation when “radical” to many is the same as a person that is impossible to understand, mad, or even dangerously aggressive. The relation between Kaczynski’s ideas and his actions is an interesting topic, but for me the ideas in themselves and how they relate to different perspective of technological development is even more interesting.

I want to point to the obvious fact that the word “radical” comes from the Latin word “radix” which means “root”. What is interesting in a book are radical ideas, a radical person might also interesting (someone that goes to the roots of something), but that is another issue and when I read books it is the ideas that I focus on. Although I have to admit that people not walking the talk are not as interesting as those actually doing what they talk about.

Technology matrix: A standard approach I think Kaczynski’s book has some merits on its own, especially as it is rough/written during difficult times and is a mix of different texts. There is a theme he never departs from when it comes to our relation to nature that I think should be taken more serious in a time where environmental organizations are falling over each other trying to put a price on nature (eco system services is just one of many concepts that is used by people how claim to know the price of nature, but not the value). But it is when the book in seen relation to other books that interesting things emerges.

Below is just an example of the kind of patterns that I find interesting to explore when I read a new book. By creating a matrix, in this case different ways to approach technological development, individual books can become part of a larger picture that often can result in tools to understand certain aspects. By putting Kaczynski’s book together with three other, well-known, books it highlights some interesting aspects. (I added some quotes from each book representing the core ideas I wanted to contrast). The books have more layers than those I highlight here, and this is the case with most interesting books. It is important to understand that the authors themselves are more complex (or in some cases more simple) that the matrix. The matrix is based on ideas, not individuals.

Initially when I read and thought about Ted’s book I created a matrix for how the future of technology can be approached. In this “Standard” matrix the tension is between: Pessimistic and Optimistic on one axis and between Enlightenment and Deterministic on the other.

Ted’s book moves beyond the rational and put nature above human society and he tools created by enlightenment. He also has a pessimistic view on humanity and see a small group bringing down the current society as the only way forward.

For me he helped create a pattern regarding how we approach technology and that people like the enlightened discussions (the rational) and tend to lean toward the optimistic. Policy makers and business leaders would not agree that they support the views of Kurzweils Singularity, but their fear of “the mad engineer” throws them in the arms of the “happy engineer”… This is the system that brought us nuclear power (soon so cheap that we can give it away according to scientists in the 60’s), chemical agriculture, GMO’s, etc and when pressed for solutions digs deeper holes/higher smoke stacks (CCS, nuclear waste storage, etc).

No one who want to be more than a marginal figure in public discussions today will chose to challenge both enlightenment and see problems, but you can challenge one of them. The easiest to challenge is the rational/enlightenment and turn technology into God (or God into technology) like Kelly does in What Technology Wants“. This is entertaining and the “crazy engineer” makes the “happy engineer” looks like a sober choice.

Every once in a while someone with a more pessimistic perspective is allowed some room, but interestingly those ideas, like the text “Why the future doesn't need us” by Joy are never taken serious. Only critique that require incremental changes tend to become part of the discussion. “Why the future doesn't need us” is interesting as it is radical and still managed to become part of the discourse… But still the ideas in the text are not addressed at all. The fact that Joy had a background as a “happy engineer” allowed him some room in the discussion.

Technology matrix-Standard

[Technology future matrix: Standard]

Technology matrix: A transformative approach When the standard matrix was done I started to think about the changes needed and what happens when society moves from one state to another (beyond the incremental).

If we just change the values on the axis slightly we can get a matrix that helps us explore the transformative with the help of the same texts.

Pessimistic => Realistic Optimistic => Naïve Enlightenment => Incremental Deterministic/Paradigm shift

The most important shift is the one on the y-axis where the two shifts move the matrix from a situation where current thinking is the norm (enlightenment) and those challenges this are dismissed (I used “deterministic, but could have used irrational/emotional or any other value that is used to polarize against the enlightenment).

The challenge is of course that those using the “enlightenment” often use it in a narrow sense, especially in economics where assumptions about linear development and rational humans (rational from a monetary perspective) result in very. It is also part of media situation where current influential companies, such as the fossil companies (oil, energy companies and car companies in particular), but also PR/lobbying companies and business consultants with media create an environmental where few transformative changes are discussed, and even fewer are promoted, even if they could help solve many of the

I want to stress that a paradigm shift does not have to be something that is against enlightenment, but it will most certainly challenge what many today take as common wisdom.

Two areas in particular: 1. How the economy/society is organized and related to that (or determining that to a large degree) 2. The ethics in society.

technology Matrix-transformative

[Technology future matrix: Transformative]

A better example of the “bought engineer” is a less well known person called Matt Ridley. He is the classic voice of “reason” desperately fighting the idea that disruptive change will happen. Mainstream media love this kind of simplistic message. What is very interesting is that they usually call themselves “rational” in an attempt to signal that any criticism is not rational. Still they are almost never doing a rational assessment where they define the parameters and put numbers on the risks and opportunities. Beside a lack of knowledge regarding the underlying issues http://www.rationaloptimist.com

Kurzweil 1: [Could not find the notes and only have a hard copy of the book, will add later] Kurzweil 2: [Could not find the notes and only have a hard copy of the book, will add later]

Kelly 1: “The universe is mostly empty because it is waiting to be filled with the products of life and the technium, with questions and problems and the thickening relations between bits that we call con scientia – shared knowledge - or consciousness.” Kelly 2: “The technium is not God; it is too small. It is not utopia. It is not even an entity. It is a becoming that is only the beginning. But it contains more goodness than anything we know.” … and on the last page “we can see more of God in a cell phone than in a tree frog”

The last made me laugh when I thought about what kind of God Kelly have, and maybe also what kind of mobile phone… ;) Then it made me sad as it is obvious that this kind of thinking is contributing to the mass extinction we see today.

K-god

[Image of frog]

Kaczynski 1: “And such an ideology will help to assure that, if and when industrial society breaks down, its remnants will be smashed beyond repair, so that the system cannot be reconstituted. The factories should be destroyed, technical books burned, etc.” Kaczynski 2: “Clearly, anyone who feels it is important to preserve human cultural achievements up to the 17th century will be very reluctant to see a complete breakdown of the system, hence will look for a compromise solution and will not take the frankly reckless measures that are necessary to knock our society off its present technology-determined course of development.”

Joy 1: “Given the incredible power of these new technologies, shouldn't we be asking how we can best coexist with them? And if our own extinction is a likely, or even possible, outcome of our technological development, shouldn't we proceed with great caution?” Joy 2: “The new Pandora's boxes of genetics, nanotechnology, and robotics are almost open, yet we seem hardly to have noticed. Ideas can't be put back in a box; unlike uranium or plutonium, they don't need to be mined and refined, and they can be freely copied. Once they are out, they are out. Churchill remarked, in a famous left-handed compliment, that the American people and their leaders "invariably do the right thing, after they have examined every other alternative." In this case, however, we must act more presciently, as to do the right thing only at last may be to lose the chance to do it at all.”

And a final from Joy as he is the one of the four that for me represent a voice that aspire towards wisdom rather than sensationalism and simplicity:

“My continuing professional work is on improving the reliability of software. Software is a tool, and as a toolbuilder I must struggle with the uses to which the tools I make are put. I have always believed that making software more reliable, given its many uses, will make the world a safer and better place; if I were to come to believe the opposite, then I would be morally obligated to stop this work. I can now imagine such a day may come. […] I'm still searching; there are many more things to learn. Whether we are to succeed or fail, to survive or fall victim to these technologies, is not yet decided. I'm up late again - it's almost 6 am. I'm trying to imagine some better answers, to break the spell and free them from the stone.”

A fire upon the deep, by Vernor Vinge

I’m not sure why I downloaded this book. It’s not a bad story, but it’s nothing very special either. The physics and events are not described in enough details for the reader to really think about them. There are a lot of ideas in the books, from zones in the universe linked to evolution on the planetary scale to an economy built around information. Still I think what I will remember are the small snippets of “emails” that are not science fiction, but a parody of our current information overflow. Not a book that is a must read in any way, but it’s OK for a few hour in transit when working on things in parallel if there is nothing else to read at the moment.