Reflections are only that, reflections, nothing more nothing less. Often these reflections are related to books I read, but occasionally also other things. These are often written very late, very fast,  using notes from my mobile phone, so the grammar and spelling is horrible.



Hieroglyph: Stories and Visions for a Better Future, edited by Ed Finn and Kathryn Cramer

This project, Hieroglyph, is fantastic and I just love the idea of providing science fiction authors the opportunity to write something positive about the future.

Unfortunately I find the idea a lot better than the content, but there are a few interesting contributions. Two that I think are worth the book as a whole.

Degrees of freedom, by Karl Schroeder

Not sure how much that is possible to tell about the story without spoiling it. Think about crowd-collaboration, visualizations, and activism and you might get some idea. It is a very interesting story where I would like to read a follow-up story. I’m not sure why, but even after a few month I still think about it every now and again, it is something very trivial and revolutionary that feels fresh.

The man who sold the stars by Gregory Benford

This is just such a classic west-coast story. It is a fun take on the naïve tech-approach by Elon Musk and others, but with such charm that you have to love the main character.

The Fourth Revolution: The Global Race to Reinvent the State by John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge

The-fourth-revolution
The-fourth-revolution

This book by Micklethwait and Wooldridge is very fascinating. Both in raising many important and urgent questions regarding the state, but also in its almost total ignorance regarding the fact that the world is very different compared with the world Mill was living in, late 19th century.  Below are just a few reflections. I might sound critical, but I want to stress that this is a book that I highly recommend to anyone interested in the future of the state and how we should govern ourselves in the 21st century. The fact that they are asking a lot of interesting questions - are intelligent – and come up with concrete conclusions, many that I very much disagree with, makes this book a must read.

They first list three revolutions:

1. Thomas Hobbes and the Nation-State: 1651 => 1700

2. John Stuart Mill and the Liberal State:  1859 => early 1900

3. Beatrice Webb and the Welfare State: 1920 => mid 1900

They talk about a fourth revolution and I agree that a revolution is probably needed and should be discussed. However, what they actually suggest is, in their own words, “revolution two (2) version 2.0”, i.e. what they actually want is an updated version of Mill’s revolution, number two on their list.  So what they actually hope for is to go back and update an old approach that was written 100 years ago, I wonder what Mill would think about such an approach to address future challenges? This is not to say that we can’t learn a lot from history, I think everything from circular thinking to a more important role for elderly can benefit from better understanding of our history, but for questions about how the state should be run is an area where tools and cultures around participation, transparency and global challenges has changed so much that I think we must look forward rather that backwards to start with.

They think that the welfare state have become to bloated and want to reboot of the liberal state, something that they think Thatcher and Regan did a good job starting, but not finishing. They actually call what Reagan and Thatcher did (and I guess Milton Friedman would be the thinker behind it) a half revolution. In many ways that half revolution was also a full derailing of a scientific based enlightenment ideal. In my view “Ratcher” did help getting rid of some old structure that where not very helpful, but they did not contribute to anything significant in terms of building something new that benefited society. So from the perspective that they destroyed but not built anything it was half a revolution.

In many parts of the book their “old world” and UK focus is almost comical. They talk a lot about the world, but the focus is seldom very far from UK, or even London.

There are also very many things that are presented as facts that does not add up. Coming from, and living in, Sweden for most of my life it is very strange to read their description of Sweden. I do not think anyone here, not even those who sympathize with Micklethwait’s and Wooldridge’s world view would say that their description of Sweden is even close to true. The fact is that almost all of the good things in Sweden that they talk about are things that exist because Sweden have resisted the kind of arguments that they promote. The fact that Sweden and the other Nordic countries still have a very strong state and much of the positive parts, like long paternity leave with allocated time for fathers, that even our former minister of finance from The Moderate Party (the largest and dominant party of the Swedish centre-right.) support, are not mentioned in the book. Probably as it goes against the “nanny state” that they think reduces freedom.

The unconditional celebration of Thatcher and Regan is another thing that feels sad to read. Yes, these two controversial politicians did some good things, everyone does. But Micklethwait and Wooldridge should look beyond their narrow focus on the states use of GDP. E.g. Regan turned back the clock 20 years when it came to global environmental challenges. The way he behaved is best described as a market fundamentalist who did not care about reality. One of his first moves was to order the solar panels on the Whitehouse removed. "Reagan's political philosophy viewed the free market as the best arbiter of what was good for the country. Corporate self-interest, he felt, would steer the country in the right direction," the author Natalie Goldstein wrote in "Global Warming." http://usgovinfo.about.com/od/thepresidentandcabinet/tp/History-of-White-House-Solar-Panels.htm

When we look at most global challenges Reagan did not do much right. His approach to the Russian can be discussed, he pushed an agenda and the short-term results had many positive aspects, but the long-term consequences that we see today should be discussed.

Thatcher was not much better. When it comes to a responsible state it is worth remembering her quote from 1987: 'The ANC is a typical terrorist organisation ... Anyone who thinks it is going to run the government in South Africa is living in cloud-cuckoo land'. That the authors fail to mention this part of Thatcher’s legacy in their book, now when we live in a time where governance and human rights are more important than ever, is very strange.

It would have been a better book if Micklethwait and Wooldridge would have mentioned a few of the controversial things these two did and if those crazy things where related to their ideology that got them to almost hate the state.

I guess Reagan and Thatcher are similar to Micklethwait and Wooldridge in the way they are able to identify certain problems, but as they use simplistic tools and have an antiquated world view (where transparency, the role of China, empathy, etc. all are ignored) the results and conclusions they draw is almost always very easy to guess as they, in an intelligent way, recycle old ideas.

They have almost a student-like approach and on too many places it feels almost childlike in its rhetoric. It is as if the support staff that help them with the articles in the Economist (that I often like and that are sharp in a way that this book is not) are needed for them to get a sharp message across.

Global environmental challenges, and the capacity as well as a will to support democratic and just development are just two issues that are fundamental to working state addressing the challenges of our time. Both largely missing in the book.

Turing to the books interesting contributions I would like to start to highlight its focus on state in a broader perspective. If we look at the actual service/delivery from the three revolutions we can see where there are needs for further work.

1. Thomas Hobbes and the Nation-State: This was about saving us from ourselves. With nuclear war, pandemics, climate change today and emerging challenges like synthetic biology, nanotechnology and AI it is clear that the current state is not doing a very good job. To a large extent is that because these issues can not be adequately addressed, and in some cases hardly at all, on the national level.  The threats are often part of the solutions so we need a new revolution that addresses.

2. John Stuart Mill and the Liberal State:  This is about individual liberty. With surveillance, companies access to your data and new ways of PR that create a world where our mental environment are often polluted (polluted in the sense that there is too much of one thing). 3. Beatrice Webb and the Welfare State: How do we take care of those that fall behind and create a society where everyone have an equal opportunity to create a meaningful life. What does a welfare state mean in a global world. Then the big question is: What would a fourth revolution include? A revolution that builds on the others and move humanity forward. Supporting self actualization, expanding the ethical sphere to other living things beyond humans, etc. Instead of a grand narrative we might consider a WIKI-Global Governance approach where we build things in a more flexible way that allow for tailor-made solutions as the world changes.

In 100 years: Leading economists predict the future, edited by Ignacio Palacios-Huerta

in100years
in100years

This book should be read, both as it is one of the few books with a 100-years perspective, but perhaps even more as it demonstrates that it does not always help to ask for a long-term perspective. If people are incapable of adopting such a perspective the outcome will not be as good as the idea. The idea behind the books is great and Ignacio frames to book in a very interesting way.

Still almost all the contributions are extremely boring. The first boring contributions inspired me as I tried to understand why they did not do anything interesting with the opportunity given to them by Ignacio, but after a few chapters it became slightly depressing reading text after text from reasonable intelligent people who obviously had no interest in a long-term perspective. Many of the contributors spent a lot of time discussing why it was hard/difficult to adopt a long-term perspective.

I had to include it in my 22nd-century-voices list (those who look beyond 2100), but it was not obvious as I would have hoped.

As Ignacio approach and focus is better than this book, I will keep my fingers crossed for another book. Perhaps nothing more is needed than time, so that this fresh perspective will be more accepted and that the contributors will have more time to reflect on a 100 years perspective.

The Climate Casino, by William Nordhaus

This is a book that surprised me. I was looking for example of a good overview of marginal approaches to climate change and simplified thinking in relation to extreme risk. But found some very solid arguments and ideas for more transformative approaches.

This was unexpected as Nordhaus has an agenda in this book that I do not fully understand. In some ways it looks as if Nordhaus wants to position himself as a moderate academic that accept the science, but also distance himself from people he thinks are to radical for the political thinking in the US. It is as if he wants to translate the science to republicans in the US who thinks the bible is more important than the scientific process and findings among climate scientists.

For large parts of the book that makes him simplify things in ways that are interesting, not for an understanding of climate change, but for those of us who do not experience people who question evolution and basic physical science on a daily bases.

Still from an extreme climate risk perspective (>6C warming) there are arguments and graphs included that makes this a very interesting book. I actually do not think Nordhaus himself intended his book to be interesting form that perspective, but due to the way he honestly argues with basic economic theory he highlight a number of issues that are very interesting.

For example, in the book he writes about thresholds and how they define almost everything. He also discuss, and use, the concept infinity (although I would argue that this is one of the areas where he is making a few key mistakes; see if you agree when you reed it. Hint, it is about shifting perspective from science to rhetoric then mixing them up) when analysing the long-term consequences.

Still, I agree with - what I see as - his two main arguments in the risk area:

1. That cost benefit assessment can help us to invest in a strategic way so that future generations can get it better (under the condition that future generations will still exist and that the pricing is approximately right. Neither of these are obviously true in mainstream economics when it comes to climate change)

2. That thresholds easily become what defines what kind of action that is needed, as the costs at a threshold are magnitudes larger than anything else in the equations. It’s also worth noting that such a defining threshold for action happens long before an “infinite impact”, i.e. an impact that threatens all human life.

Where I think he fails, is to discuss these two paradigms in relation to climate change. If ignoring thresholds and the need for dramatic changes is something that is necessary to reach consensus in the US he should clearly explain that the actions we will take is not related to what is needed. Hence, there might be a price attached to ensuring a broader agreement among US policy makers today. Such an agreement is obviously important, but it would be very interesting if Nordhaus wrote a book where he focused on an educated audience that accept the science, he’s got a sharp intellect to could help move low probability high impact aspects up the agenda. This would probably also be a more important long-term contribution.

How to find cost-efficient solutions where signifiant transitions are needed and there are multiple possible development paths are important economic challenges where people like Nordhaus are needed.

Business as usual is over, by Hans Hassle

This is a very low profile, and short, book that also is very radical. It is the kind of book where you know that history could turn this either into a classic, or an almost irrelevant footnote. I hope it will be a classic as it explores new innovative ways forward for entrepreneurs who see beyond tools and focus on results. Exactly the kind of innovations that are needed if we are to move beyond incremental improvements in our current systems.

What is interesting, and unusual, is that the personal parts of the book are actually relevant for the overall story about how business could/should look in the future. Too often the personal parts feels as if they are added to make the book fit in with the mainstream populism, or are used in order for the author to tell people how clever/empathic/linked/etc he/she is.

It is both a story about a persona journey and the birth of an idea for how the best of idealism and strategic thinking can be brought together in a new way and create a companization, a hybrid between a company and a non-profit organization. The book both covers the ideas behind this new entity as well as the story of the actual implementation.

The fact that the book that the book hardly mentions that Plantagon, the company Hans is running right now, probably is the leading companies/organizations in the area of urban agriculture just shows how important Hans think the idea behind his ideas about companization is.

Regardless if you are interested in ways to save the planet, new ways to organize society, or “just” want to be inspired by a person who turns visions into practical results, this book is for you.