Reflections are only that, reflections, nothing more nothing less. Often these reflections are related to books I read, but occasionally also other things. These are often written very late, very fast,  using notes from my mobile phone, so the grammar and spelling is horrible.



斯德哥尔摩全球风险宣言呼吁有效全球治理和方案应对气候变化风险

在联合国政府间气候变化专业委员会发布第五次气候变化评估报告时,斯德哥尔摩全球挑战基金会(Global Challenges Foundation)发表宣言,呼吁全球集体应对高风险的极端气候现象。 人类有史以来第一次成为了全球范围内不可逆转气候变化的直接原因。正如我们所知,气候变化有着严重的潜在影响,对长期生存的人类文明构成威胁。世界现在面临着许多低概率高影响的全球风险,最关键的是极端的气候变化。这些风险并非是一个地方甚至一个国家可以控制的,全球性威胁需要全球性行动。

第一步应考虑如下四个方面:

1. 将整体概率分布可视化

制定针对气候敏感性(以及相似议题)的整体概率分布十分重要,可以给可能的各种结果提供信息。缺乏数据或科学研究绝不应该成为忽略概率分布的借口,尤其是在概率较低后果严重的长尾效应中。

我们呼吁各国政府,各大公司,研究人员和其他利益相关者解决整体概率分布的问题,包括高影响低概率的情景,确保严重的风险没有被忽视或遮蔽。当低概率结果可能有极大负面影响的时候,表格、图表和主要结论都应始终包括整体概率分布。

2. 需特别注意极端事件的概率

风险是概率和影响的产物。当影响非常严重时,如严重的气候变化,无论概率高低此时风险也应被视为相当严重。因此只展现整体概率分布是不够的,我们必须采取行动,避免混淆不确定风险和低风险,或者不大可能发生的事件与不可能事件。

极端气候变化可以在相当短的时间内杀死这个星球上显著比例的高级生命形式。目前看来这种情况发生的概率很低,但任何可以杀死地球上许多高级生命形式的影响都应该触发高风险应对。

这种程度的风险(低概率,极端的影响)使得传统风险管理模式显得毫无意义。货币计算变得毫无用处。如果我们采用贴现,应该有很高的负贴现率。我们为避免严重气候变化所做的所有事都有可能拯救未来无数人的生命。我们也应该用同样的方式观察那些不那么有戏剧性但对人类文明产生高度负面结果的影响。

我们呼吁各国政府,各大公司,研究人员和其他利益相关者囊括所有相关工作的极端风险。如果极端风险的概率增加,或者对于风险的厌恶情绪增加,应当立即采取行动。我们可以采用安全政策和金融部门的方法,采取迅速行动的策略,超越现在这种循序渐进的主导方法。

3. 以合适的语言描述极端风险

政府间气候变化专业委员会(IPCC)使用具体明确的语言描述不同的概率以确保清晰,但脱离了语境以及缺乏支持论据,可能会产生误导。例如,IPCC用“不太可能”这个标题来指代0-10%之间的概率,但是脱离了上下文它很可能被认为是一种规范性的判断,表明我们不需要操心这个风险,即使与之相关的影响是无法接受的。

使用标题来解释概率是无益的。以后IPCC在外部通信中应只使用数字来帮助所有人参与和理解实际情况。从现在开始其他利益相关者也应该这样做。

我们呼吁各国政府,各大企业,科研机构,媒体和其他利益相关者探讨如何使用语言更好的交流,探讨气候变化中极端风险的严重程度,并在可能的情况下与其他风险比较来帮助说明情况。

4. 建立一个全球风险和机遇指标来指导治理

目前并没有现存的机制能够为威胁人类文明的现象提供全面更新的全球风险评估。

在许多不可持续的趋势逐渐趋同的情况下,领导人有能力在为时过晚以前做出行动是至关重要的。并且要能评估像政治决策,公司投资类似的行动如何影响不同结果和影响的概率。

作为联合国系统的一部分,建立全球风险指标和针对不同领域的分项指标有助于了解全球极端个别风险及其互连,这两者应该同时追踪。一个重要特征是它有能力说明谁要为增加和减少风险负责,说明谁会遭受影响,谁会获益。

我们呼吁各国政府,各大公司,研究员和其他利益相关者探索建立一个全球风险指标,有助于引导优先级,告知人们不同的风险和它们之间的关系。

(翻译:中国日报欧盟分社实习生李晓菲)

Interesting news: Luxury tax in China could support a global luxury tax for innovation

I have been discussing the opportunities with a luxury tax that support innovation for a number of years. The new leadership in China is now moving in a very interesting direction and if things move into implementation the right way it could be transformative in a way that have global consequences. Not only would it be an interesting move towards equity and be an important funding source for innovative new solutions, it could also be a major step towards new values related to consumption where the shallow brand consumption is seen as something from the past. Here is my “old” article just after the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China in November last year where I discussed a global luxury tax.

Here is an article from China Daily, "Nation may start taxing more luxury goods, official says", that was just published.

Sino-European collaboration as an axis for global sustainability (article China Daily)

In conjunction with Li Keqiang's first visit to Europe as Premier I wrote an article for China Daily. The article is available through this link.

Below is my full version (with a few more examples), and below that the abridged version in China Daily.

The full article (with some more examples)

++++++++ Sino-European collaboration as an axis for global sustainability

Premier Li’s visit to Europe provides an excellent opportunity to begin a process that can make the Sino-European collaboration an axis for global sustainability.

Li’s visit will be influenced by two current events, the extreme pollution in many Chinese cities and the economic recession in Europe.  These two challenges combine two interesting aspects. First, they engage the general public, as they see and suffer from the direct consequences. Second, both problems are linked to an unsustainable economic development that require transformative solutions.

So far the underlying challenges have not been discussed very much in mainstream media. The undisputed, but dramatic fact, is that human civilization itself is at risk due to the economic development currently pursued. Scientists agree that climate change, pandemics, collapsing eco systems, bioweapons, etc. already pose a threat on a planetary scale that is so serious that it is difficult to comprehend. If left unchecked these challenges, or a combination of them, are examples of risks that can become so serious that they destroy our civilization.

Instead of feeling depressed we can ­see this challenge as something positive, as an indicator of human ingenuity. The capacity that can bring about such powerful, but destructive, development can also be turned into something equally powerful – but sustainable.

In order to unleash the positive opportunities a new Sino-European collaboration should deliver on short-term challenges, but also on the – so far largely ignored – long-term visions.

In the short term EU should make sure that barriers, and threats, against smart solutions from China are removed permanently. EU has a track record of talking a lot about sustainability leadership, but when China picks up speed and helps the world EU tend to block it. It happened earlier with energy efficient light bulbs, the very symbol for smart energy use, where EU punished import of such light bulbs from China.

Today EU is threatening the global solar industry’s development and thereby undermining a low-carbon development by doing the same thing against solar PV, the very symbol of a clean energy future. Instead of thanking and supporting China’s efforts to accelerate the development of tomorrow’s solutions EU has tried to block it over and over again, this must stop.

China on the other hand should review the focus on improved market access in resource heavy and polluting industries and not fights attempts in EU to reduce emissions for example from flying – something that help increase the use of virtual meetings. Such a strategy will lock China into a resource inefficient economy that see measures to reduce emissions as a threat instead of a driver for innovation. China must be more transparent and clearly communicate its intension to accelerate a low-carbon development beyond incremental improvements and also show this when visiting Europe as few in Europe are aware of the many exiting initiatives in China.

To establish a more long-term agenda China and Europe could develop a joint smart-solutions-development-plan. This plan should be based on collaboration and accelerated uptake of smart solutions with the help of public procurement as well as a reduction of trade/investment barriers.  A joint web portal could be established where the progress in smart solutions development and implementation is reported.

As part of the smart-solutions-development-plan three areas in particular could be explored:

1. Global governance The current global governance system was created in another time to meet other challenges. It is time to start exploring how a fundamentally revised global governance system could look like that is able to address current and emerging threats, as well as support new opportunities. Organizations like CASS in China and the Global Challenges Foundation in Europe are already working in related fields and could help lead the way with new high-level collaborative initiatives if they are supported.

2. Long-term smart solutions Current structures tend to promote incremental improvements in existing systems and few initiatives exists that support new clusters that provide transformative solutions. EU and China should explore ways to encourage clusters that provide the transformative solutions needed in ways that allow 10 billion people, the approximate population 2050, to live a good life.

In order to support smart solutions we must also rethink the measures we use. For example, instead of looking at the number of flights and physical goods moving between China and EU as a sign of collaboration, new tools must be developed that also can measure the number of video meetings and ideas that are shared though digital channels.

3. Values in the 21st Century Current values in society are dominated by a simple hunger for more material things. Such values are encouraged by advertising and PR as well as economic theories with focus on material consumption. This made sense 50 years ago, but in a world where more people suffer from obesity than malnutrition and when media is filled with trivial entertainment it is time to take a step back and discuss what values in life that are really important.

In Europe Chinese concepts, both ancient and modern, should be part of the curriculum in schools as these help students to reflect and look beyond simple urges. In China media should pay more attention to smart sustainable lifestyles in Europe rather then focus on the most unsustainable lifestyles and call them glamorous.

An initiative could be launched where Chinese tea houses are introduced in each major city in Europe in order to spread knowledge about Chinese wisdom and provide a place for reflection. In a similar way vegetarian restaurants with slow food from Europe could be introduced in China as an alternative to the very unsustainable fast food restaurant that are destroying the planet and making people fat.

To establish the Sino-European collaboration as an axis for global sustainability will not happen over night, but if both sides begin to open up for such an approach Li’s first trip to Europe as a premier could become a historic one that was the start of a new chapter in Sino-European collaboration.

++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

The (abridged) article in China Daily 2013-05-24

Long-term smart solutions needed

Sino-European collaboration can help foster, strengthen global sustainability

Premier Li Keqiang's visit to Europe provides an excellent opportunity to begin a process that can make the Sino-European collaboration an axis for global sustainability.

Li's visit will be influenced by two current events, the extreme pollution in many Chinese cities and the economic recession in Europe. These two challenges combine two interesting aspects. First, they engage the general public, as they see and suffer from the direct consequences. Second, both problems are linked to an unsustainable economic development that requires transformative solutions.

So far the underlying challenges have not been discussed very much in mainstream media. The undisputed, but dramatic fact is that human civilization itself is at risk due to the economic development currently pursued. Scientists agree that climate change, pandemics, collapsing eco systems, bio-weapons and so on, already pose a threat on a planetary scale that is so serious that it is difficult to comprehend. If left unchecked, these challenges, or a combination of them, are examples of risks that can become so serious that they destroy our civilization.

Instead of feeling depressed, we can see this challenge as something positive, as an indicator of human ingenuity. The capacity that can bring about such powerful, but destructive, development can also be turned into something equally powerful, but sustainable.

In order to unleash the positive opportunities, a new Sino-European collaboration should deliver on short-term challenges, but also on the - so far largely ignored - long-term vision.

In the short term, the EU should make sure that barriers, and threats, against smart solutions from China are removed permanently. The EU has a track record of talking a lot about sustainability leadership, but when China picks up speed and helps the world the EU tends to block it. It happened earlier with energy efficient light bulbs, the very symbol of smart energy use, where the EU punished imports of such light bulbs from China.

Today the EU is threatening the global solar industry's development and thereby undermining low-carbon development by doing the same thing against solar PV, the very symbol of a clean energy future. Instead of thanking and supporting China's efforts to accelerate the development of tomorrow's solutions, the EU has tried to block it over and over again; this must stop.

China, on the other hand, should review the focus on improved market access in resource-heavy and polluting industries and not fight attempts in the EU to reduce emissions, for example, from flying something that helps increase the use of virtual meetings.

Such a strategy will lock China into a resource inefficient economy that sees measures to reduce emissions as a threat instead of a driver for innovation. China must be more transparent and clearly communicate its intention to accelerate a low-carbon development beyond incremental improvements and also show this when visiting Europe, as few in Europe are aware of the many existing initiatives in China.

To establish a more long-term agenda, China and Europe could develop a joint smart solutions development plan. This plan should be based on collaboration and accelerated uptake of smart solutions with the help of public procurement as well as a reduction of trade/investment barriers. A joint Web portal could be established where the progress in smart solutions development and implementation is reported.

As part of the smart solutions development plan three areas in particular could be explored:

Global governance: The current global governance system was created in another time to meet other challenges. It is time to start exploring how a fundamentally revised global governance system could address current and emerging threats, as well as support new opportunities. Organizations like CASS in China and the Global Challenges Foundation in Europe are already working in related fields and could help lead the way with new high-level collaborative initiatives if they are supported.

Long-term smart solutions: Current structures tend to promote incremental improvements in existing systems and few initiatives exist that support new clusters that provide transformative solutions. The EU and China should explore ways to encourage clusters that provide the transformative solutions needed in ways that allow 10 billion people, the approximate population by 2050, to live a good life.

In order to support smart solutions we must also rethink the measures we use. For example, instead of looking at the number of flights and physical goods moving between China and the EU as a sign of collaboration, new tools must be developed that can measure the number of video meetings and ideas that are shared though digital channels.

Values in the 21st century: Current values in society are dominated by a simple hunger for more material things. Advertising and PR as well as economic theories encourage such values with focus on material consumption. This made sense 50 years ago, but in a world where more people suffer from obesity than malnutrition and when media is filled with trivial entertainment it is time to take a step back and discuss what values in life are really important.

In Europe, Chinese concepts, both ancient and modern, should be part of the curriculum in schools as these help students to reflect and look beyond simple urges. In China, media should pay more attention to smart sustainable lifestyles in Europe rather than focus on the most unsustainable lifestyles and call them glamorous.

An initiative could be launched where Chinese teahouses are introduced in major European cities to spread knowledge about Chinese wisdom and provide a place for reflection. In a similar way, vegetarian restaurants with slow food from Europe could be introduced in China as an alternative to the very unsustainable fast food restaurants that are destroying the planet and making people fat.

To establish the Sino-European collaboration as an axis for global sustainability will not happen overnight, but if both sides begin to open up for such an approach, Li's first trip to Europe as a premier could become a historic one that heralds the start of a new chapter in Sino-European collaboration.

The author is founder of Sweden-based consultancy 21st New Frontiers. The views do not necessarily reflect those of China Daily.

World’s first framework agreement for public procurement with focus on service and transformative solutions

I’m not 100%, but I think the world has just received its first framework agreement for public procurement with focus on service and transformative solutions (drop me an email if I’m wrong and I will update this post).

This is hopefully the start of one of the most important shifts to deliver real sustainability (more than incremental improvements in unsustainable systems). Public procurement is not only the biggest source of investment on the planet, it is also the investments that shape the infrastructure and establish a benchmark for further investments.

Kammarkollegiet, the body responsible for public procurement for all authorities in Sweden, released a framework agreement in the area of gifts and branding products. So instead of only asking for the traditional goods, like pens, scarfs and caps, there is now a focus on the actual service they is needed. This shift opens up for solutions like e-books, mobile applications and digital music.

This work was initiated as part of a pilot (see leaflet describing the pilot here) where Kammarkollegiet worked together with me (as responsible for transformative solutions) in the Public Procurement Committee. We selected one simple area where a shift would be simple to understand and easy to implement (branding- and gift products), and one area with significant impact where a lot of change is taking place that people are aware of (a shift form physical mobility to virtual mobility. This work is still on-going and results are expected end of this year.)

I have attached the main document  here so just click t0 download (but please not that it is not the full set of documentation and anyone interested in applying as a supplier or get hold of the full set the normal way). As it is in Swedish I have google translated a few key parts in it. Please note that the legal parts of procurement is not my area so I don’t know if Google did some strange mistakes, but the overall approach should hopefully be clear.

Regardless of the legal language below this is a very interesting first step and I look forward to further developments like this. Hopefully this will fly under the radar for a year or so that frontrunners can explore this in a constructive atmosphere.

+++++++++++++ 1.2.2. “The procurement is in the area of branding- and gift products, with the aim to satisfy the customers need of such products and services, or an alternative transformative solution (see 5.2.3.)” ++ 5.2.3. Transformative solutions Tenderers should be able to provide transformative solutions in accordance with chapter 9 chapter 9.1.1. Transformative solutions are procured through renewed competition. Transformative solutions refer to a shift from only giving away “things” like pens, bags, umbrellas to also give away smart service such e-books, mobile applications and ringtones, etc. In dialogue with the authority that conduct the procurement the tenderer should work to solve the branding and gift needs through transformative solutions.. Confirm that the requirement is met (Yes/No) ++ 11. Transformative solutions Transformative solutions are defined as solutions that contributes to at least 80% reduced resource use and CO2 emissions compared with the conventional way of providing the function/service. Demand can be defined, or points can be provided for how a shift from branding products to branding service can be provided and what options that exists, i.e. how can a shift in the tradition to give away things as pens, bags, umbrellas, to also give away smart service like e-books, mobile applications and ringtones, take place?