Reflections are only that, reflections, nothing more nothing less. Often these reflections are related to books I read, but occasionally also other things. These are often written very late, very fast, using notes from my mobile phone, so the grammar and spelling is horrible.
Just found the illustration to the article I wrote about trade war or collaboration. Click on it to make it bigger, enjoy.
The way the BASIC countries move forward will have profound influence on the future climate negotiations and global climate work. While much can be done, three areas are key at this moment in time:
The role of global companies, the role of China, the role of new technology, the role of the global infrastructure of the 21st Century (the information highways), the role of different ethical systems and how these mega-trends converge in the 21st Century will be illustrated in real time as this process evolves.
Sometime you can see history being written in front of your eyes. Depending on the outcome of the process this will be either a very important event or the symbol for a paradigm shift that we will see the full implications of the coming decades, probably longer.
First, this attack was not just on Google. As part of our investigation we have discovered that at least twenty other large companies from a wide range of businesses--including the Internet, finance, technology, media and chemical sectors--have been similarly targeted. We are currently in the process of notifying those companies, and we are also working with the relevant U.S. authorities.
Second, we have evidence to suggest that a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists. Based on our investigation to date we believe their attack did not achieve that objective. Only two Gmail accounts appear to have been accessed, and that activity was limited to account information (such as the date the account was created) and subject line, rather than the content of emails themselves.
Third, as part of this investigation but independent of the attack on Google, we have discovered that the accounts of dozens of U.S.-, China- and Europe-based Gmail users who are advocates of human rights in China appear to have been routinely accessed by third parties. These accounts have not been accessed through any security breach at Google, but most likely via phishing scams or malware placed on the users' computers.
We have already used information gained from this attack to make infrastructure and architectural improvements that enhance security for Google and for our users. In terms of individual users, we would advise people to deploy reputable anti-virus and anti-spyware programs on their computers, to install patches for their operating systems and to update their web browsers. Always be cautious when clicking on links appearing in instant messages and emails, or when asked to share personal information like passwords online. You can read more here about our cyber-security recommendations. People wanting to learn more about these kinds of attacks can read this U.S. government report (PDF), Nart Villeneuve's blog and this presentation on the GhostNet spying incident.
We have taken the unusual step of sharing information about these attacks with a broad audience not just because of the security and human rights implications of what we have unearthed, but also because this information goes to the heart of a much bigger global debate about freedom of speech. In the last two decades, China's economic reform programs and its citizens' entrepreneurial flair have lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese people out of poverty. Indeed, this great nation is at the heart of much economic progress and development in the world today.
We launched Google.cn in January 2006 in the belief that the benefits of increased access to information for people in China and a more open Internet outweighed our discomfort in agreeing to censor some results. At the time we made clear that "we will carefully monitor conditions in China, including new laws and other restrictions on our services. If we determine that we are unable to achieve the objectives outlined we will not hesitate to reconsider our approach to China."
These attacks and the surveillance they have uncovered--combined with the attempts over the past year to further limit free speech on the web--have led us to conclude that we should review the feasibility of our business operations in China. We have decided we are no longer willing to continue censoring our results on Google.cn, and so over the next few weeks we will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China.
The decision to review our business operations in China has been incredibly hard, and we know that it will have potentially far-reaching consequences. We want to make clear that this move was driven by our executives in the United States, without the knowledge or involvement of our employees in China who have worked incredibly hard to make Google.cn the success it is today. We are committed to working responsibly to resolve the very difficult issues raised.
Posted by David Drummond, SVP, Corporate Development and Chief Legal Officer
The role of global companies, the role of China, the role of new technology, the role of the global infrastructure of the 21st Century (the information highways), the role of different ethical systems and how these mega-trends converge in the 21st Century will be illustrated in real time as this process evolves.
This is the Chinese translation of my China Daily op-ed. "It's dangerous to make China a climate scapegoat". The Chinese version is here. The heading in Chinese, "Go Green", is actually closer to my message, but I understand that it was not used in the English as few foreigner know much about Chinas "Go Global" strategy.... For those of you that know and prefer Chinese, please read the article.
中国应实施“绿色走出去”战略
2010-01-06 08:58:33
中国日报网消息：英文《中国日报》1月6日评论版文章：前几周，哥本哈根气候变化大会产生的妥协性协议成为热点议题。一些西方政客试图把会议未达成富有成效的结果归罪于中国。 去年，西方媒体不断把中国描绘成全球气候变化工作无法取得建设性成果的主要障碍，如今的这些批评只是这一趋势的一部分罢了。
哥本哈根大会后，每当人们提及会议未取得成果，中国就会成为替罪羔羊。这对于中国企业、中国本身以及整个全球气候工作来说都十分不利。尽管当前情况并不乐观，但中国许多努力都值得称赞，这正是向世界展示一扇更为准确的中国图景的机会之窗。
但对于每个了解中国低碳工程的人，听到中国成为气候保护方面缺乏行动的替罪羔羊，都无疑会感到难过。有四点可以充分说明把中国当做替罪羔羊是多么的错误、不公以及危险。
第一，过去三年中，在促进哥本哈根大会取得良好成果方面，中国发挥了建设性作用。中国的积极参与得到了与中国合作专家的一致认可，包括学者、决策者和非政府组织人员。中国提出很多建设性的议程，不光关系到国内的短期利益，而且考虑到全球的长期发展。同时我们要记住很重要的一点，西方国家为了满足他们过度的消费欲望，在全球到处建设工厂，他们的人均排放量极高，使得大气充满了温室气体，
第二，中国国内实施了强有力的政策，并投入巨额资金发展低碳经济。这些政策和投资比西方国家在工业发展时期的政策投资要先进得多，在某些情况下，甚至比今天一些西方国家做的还要好。例如，2009年，中国比美国安装了更多的风力发电装备；中国的太阳能电池制造技术居于世界领先地位；中国是世界诸如节能灯泡之类的节能设备的主要生产商；最为重要的是，中国正致力于研发降低城市碳排放量的设备，以期为人们提供低排放量的高品质生活。
第三，中国为了支持低碳经济，积极加强同欧盟、美国、日本的双边合作以及南南合作。就在哥本哈根会议前，中国和欧盟还有美国举行双边会议，在可再生资源、智能电网、智能建筑和电动汽车等方面达成很多重要的合作协议。
第四，世界不能忘掉中国依旧是一个发展中国家，中国还有数千万人处于贫困之中。目前中国还在兴建基础设施，但并没有发达国家向低碳基建的方向转移。
虽然把中国勾画为世界气候恶霸是错误的、不公平的，但在这一错误得到纠正前，我们必须明白中国正在受这一角色的牵连，因为国外的决策者、公司和人们往往会忽略掉真正的现实，按照他们认为对的方式来做出决定。比方说，一个高排放的形象会挫伤创新企业来中国投机的积极性，同时鼓励了高污染企业的投资。这一形象同样会影响中国公司的出口及其在外国的投资机会。这不仅对中国，同样也对全球二氧化碳的减排工作构成消极影响。
为使人们对中国有一个更正确的了解，中国的决策者应当更多地考虑当前政策透明度、沟通以及投入情况。2010年，在走出去战略的启发下，中国应该实施“绿色走出去”战略。这个新的战略应该考虑以下两个问题。
首先，世界目前尚无全球性机构或全球性媒体。通常意义上的全球性媒体，常指美国有线电视新闻网、英国广播公司、路透社、法新社、彭博新闻社等西方视角占据主导地位的西方媒体。许多机构亦是如此，如一些智囊团和非政府组织就常被称作全球性组织。对于这些组织来说，有机会获取正确信息、参与信息的讨论显得十分重要，允许信息得到批判和讨论的科学方法也是十分必要的。
其次，对于那些有着全球性影响的国家政策，其透明度的需求越来越高。全球透明度日益重要的不仅仅是有关温室气体排放的信息，另外两个重要领域同样需要讨论，需要中国扮演重要角色：国家的政策措施如何影响全球资源的使用，以及有关贫困减少应该向国际社会进行公开透明的报道。
当今欧盟、日本尤其是美国的自然资源人均消耗量都非常高。这些国家的一些政策使得贫困国家难以带领自己的人民脱贫致富。改进对自然资源的使用以及减少贫困等问题的测量标准与报道将成为21世纪的重要议题，中国应掌握主动权，同其他国家一道，完善这些领域的报道标准。
为扭转当前的不利形势，变劣势为优势，中国应当采取短期战略与长期战略并行的双轨机制：短期战略是使中国不再因为哥本哈根的结果被视为气候恶霸；长期战略是让世界了解中国是低碳及可持续发展的有力支持者。
对于中国政府来说，可行的短期发展战略包括中国气候工作的官方报告、官方干预战略以及世界巡回宣传计划。这一报告可以从阐述中国视角开始，一直到解释中国在哥本哈根大会上的提案和议案，也可以讨论到目前为止中国从气候谈判中得到的教训。中国应当把为达成《哥本哈根协议》所做的努力呈现出来，中国对未来谈判的看法也会考虑到不同的利益相关者。
如果报告中涉及中国对重要问题的看法则更好，如《京都议定书》（具有法律约束力的协议）中有关长期合作行为、不同国家的责任、报道排放和措施的透明度以及技术转让与合作等。中国应当允许外部世界的声音就中国现状的弱点来阐明他们的观点并评论这些观点。
上面提到的这些内容在现有的中英文文件中其实都有，不过很有必要把它们整合成为一个报告，并且提供相关的英文版本。同样重要的是，最终的报告形成应该有一个中国以外的其他利益体的参与过程。为了确保全面的参与和最终报告的宣传，应该考虑一个两步走的世界巡回宣传计划。 第一步应该在报告写作阶段的参与过程中，第二部一应该在世界各地宣讲最终的报告中。
长期战略应该配合短期战略同步开始。长期战略的一个关键部分就是建立世界范围内的全球经济循环中心。这些中心可以是实体或虚拟的，但重要的是它们能让中国在把地球建设得更加美好方面充分发挥主动权。
中国当前的处境或许令人沮丧，但同样也为世界人民获得有关中国的信息提供了机会。如果中国不提供这样的信息，外界可能会误以为当前国际社会对中国的指责以及中国是全球气候工作的主要障碍两者确有其事，或者认为中国不管世界其他各地的死活。由于这两点都不是真实，尽快向世界提供更多关于中国的真实信息对中国而言是十分有好处的。世界各地的许多专家都乐于为呈现一个真实的中国而尽一份力，并且他们已经准备好随时开始工作。（作者为世界自然基金会 全球政策顾问 Dennis Pamlin 编译 刘江波 编辑 裴培）
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