New paper: From ”Green IT” to ”Greening with IT” in 2009 A white paper on the financial crisis as an opportunity to ensure accelerated CO2 reductions

From ”Green IT” to ”Greening with IT” in 2009

-A white paper on the financial crisis as an opportunity to ensure accelerated CO2 reductions with low carbon it solutions (download here)

The “From 'Green IT' to 'Greening with IT' in 2009” is the last paper from the joint WWF and HP project: “first billion tonnes CO2 reduction with smart ICT”. It was a great project and I think it is fair to say that it contributed to putting low carbon ICT on the global agenda.

It is a great paper to end the WWF-HP project with as the focus is how the current economic and financial crisis can be turned into an opportunity. It is also a great support for the interesting work that is emerging in emerging countries like China, Mexico and India. It can hopefully also support the follow-up from the OECD declaration on green growth 24-25 June 2009 where ICT was mentioned a number of times (download here with ICT highlighted, with the help of OECD). It is great that OECD also managed to get low-carbon infrastructure in the declaration and if low carbon infrastructure become a key focus for Copenhagen that would be a significant step forward.

Op-ed China Daily:End of fossil fuel and fueling of innovations

This is my op-ed article about end of oil, I have been working around the clock to get everything done that I need to get done before I leave WWF Sweden end of September so I missed that it was published last week (here is the link to China Daily) and now understand the reason for all the emails about oil... When the IEA study will be public I think we will see beginning of a very tense time in the energy sector. The end of oil will no longer be academic, it will become a key economic and security policy issue. As I argue in the article this will be one of the most important battles in the early 21st Century. I think the chances that China will make wise choses are better then most western countries where powerful power companies are integrated in the governments in a way that make rational and innovative decision close to impossible.

We really need new companies moving into the mainstream discussion. As long as the old energy companies are the advisors we will continue to see most of the investment going into the supply side and most of it in extraction/refining related solutions, as this is where the business models are. An index/measure to assess where companies are investing their money is moving up my priority list.

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End of fossil fuel and fueling of innovations
The most authoritative energy organization just indicated that the end of oil is much nearer than expected. The day we will see the end of the oil era can best be described as an oil-bomb implosion -more powerful than anything humanity has seen.

In a unique initiative the International Energy Agency in Paris has conducted its first study to assess the future oil supplies. The decision to survey supply - instead of just demand, as in the past - reflects an increasing fear among world leaders that oil reserves may dry up much sooner than expected.

Very soon the day will come when humanity will see the end of oil. If the response is strategic from Chinese companies and policymakers it could boost a shift from high-carbon goods "made in China" to smart 21st century solutions "innovated in China" that could help the world into a global circular economy.

At first thought the end of cheap oil may look like a good thing for the environment because much of the carbon emission that causes global warming comes from oil. The problem is that most of the international companies responsible for providing energy have shown they are not that interested in a sustainable future with renewable energy and energy efficiency. When oil prices were close to $150 a barrel last year we could see increased investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency, but the real investments were in more and dirtier fossil fuels.

Three areas received a lot of attention and investments from the fossil fuel industry last year: Tar sand, coal to liquid and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

Tar sand is dirty oil that requires a lot of energy to be extracted so it emits much more carbon than traditional oil. Coal to liquid is a method of extracting liquid fuel from coal, which again causes much higher emissions than traditional oil because it is a very energy intensive process. And CCS is an "end-of-pipe" technology where the problem is made marginally less destructive.

From an economic and innovative perspective these investments make no sense. Their ways of providing energy are dirtier and more expensive, and they don't drive innovation or create any significant job opportunities compared with most other options.

Energy efficient buildings, or even carbon-positive buildings, new smart IT solutions that allow teleworking and smart public transport system can be built around renewable energy at the same or cheaper cost.

Why then big investments were not made in smart and renewable energy solutions? The reason is simple and important both. It is about business ideas and the will to keep on using an infrastructure that we sooner or later must leave behind.

The world, especially the industrial world, has such a strong addiction to oil that we will probably see wars over oil and more investments in climate destructive technologies if we don't start investing for a world beyond oil.

Since oil consumption in China is expected to increase by about 60 percent by 2020, according to studies conducted by Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, it can turn the crisis into an opportunity.

The country has the chance of shifting from a society built on oil and look at development beyond the "age of oil". Its focus should shift from increased oil exploration and more fossil technologies toward new smart technologies that also can be exported.

Smart public transport, teleworking and smart buildings can become the three pillars of an oil-free future for China and the rest of the world. But for that to happen we need new initiatives.

First and most important is to ensure that companies engaged in extracting, refining and supplying fossil fuel are not in charge of the development agenda. Many western governments have such companies as their main advisors on climate policy.

It's natural that these companies would want to protect their business model and sell as much energy as possible instead of helping people get the service they need in the most climate-efficient way. The companies want to protect the investments in the infrastructure they have built, too. That means they would use more fuel for their refineries, pipelines and power stations.

It is almost impossible for them to give up the use of fossil fuel both as a raw material and finished product because their knowledge and innovative power is almost totally limited to fossil solutions.

Second, no company should be supported or given permission to operate unless it demonstrates a plan for a fossil-free future by 2020. This would prepare society for the day oil prices shoot out of the roof or the existing distribution system collapses.

Third, China can lead the way in making other oil producing countries invest all the revenue earned by their companies after oil prices cross $70 a barrel in non-fossil-fuel solutions, with a strong focus on energy efficiency and system solutions.

It doesn't make any sense to allow companies to make record profits from our dependence on oil and use it to make us more wretched slaves of fossil fuel.

Fourth, China can take up the global challenge of building oil-free cities employing the best tools and practices from around the world, and then sharing the experience with other countries.

The end of oil can lead to harmonious innovation or more aggressive investments in fossil fuel. The development road China chooses - sustainable or destructive - will not only shape the 21st century's industrial development, but also humanity's future.

The author is adviser to various companies, governments and NGOs.

The world’s first global market survey on low carbon IT -100 cities and 100 companies’ expectations from IT in relation to a low carbon future

The main conclusions from the new report are pasted in below and the whole report "The world’s first global market survey on low carbon IT -100 cities and 100 companies’ expectations from IT in relation to a low carbon future" can be downloaded (here).

This is a study that was really interesting to do . It is the world’s first global survey regarding low carbon ICT solutions. Thanks to the support of HP (they supported this work and it is linked to the ”one billion tonnes work” with WWF) we now have a better understanding about the real situation. Thanks also to Dan Gabaldon and his team at Booz & co. how did the heavy job of collecting and analyzing the data.

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The uptake of low-carbon ICT is mixed across sectors and geographies. The most significant barriers include a lack of awareness of the systemic carbon and energy saving potential of ICTs, and a lack of tools and methodologies to quantify these benefits. Removing these barriers would help better leverage the financial drivers for low-carbon ICTs adoption as carbon pricing becomes more prevalent, accelerating the use of ICTs as a solution for a low-carbon economy.

1. Key Conclusions
➢ The financial crisis provides a unique opportunity to establish ICT as a key provider of low carbon solutions
o Most low carbon ICT solutions do not add costs like many other “green” activities. So far these solutions have been implemented because they help business and cities to increase productivity and save costs. If awareness of this win-win opportunity (economy and climate) spread, an accelerated uptake could be expected.
o There is no existing method to measure the low carbon contributions from ICT solutions, but the interest for such a tool is significant. A tool that would help ICT users and cities to calculate the carbon savings from using ICT solutions would increase the interest and demand in such solutions.
o IT users, especially high-emitting industries, are starting to use low carbon IT solutions for transformative change. It is necessary to collect and disseminate best practices where ICT’s role in transformative change, as well as incremental, is described .

➢ A shift in perspective from risk to profit in relation to climate change is needed for ICT to become visible as a key provider of low carbon solutions
o The green stimulus packages seem to have resulted in a situation where companies in emerging markets will increase their investments in low carbon solutions. To link ICT investments to strategic parts of stimulus packages, such as those promoting infrastructure, is important for low carbon infrastructure development.
o The areas seen as most important for investments to reduce a company’s own carbon emissions over the next five years are smart buildings and use of renewable energy, both requiring significant investment in ICT if done properly. Examples of how ICT help with smart buildings and increased use of renewable energy in different markets should be provided.

➢ Opportunities with a low carbon infrastructure must be understood
o The combined pressure from the financial and climate crises has put focus on the infrastructure . ICT solutions can be part of a low carbon infrastructure that must provide many of the services that have so far been provided by a high carbon Infrastructure. The benefits of a low carbon infrastructure need to be better understood and tools to help decision makers should be developed.
o Asia appears to be a potential leader in the area of smart buildings. With so many new buildings being built, this is a historic opportunity where buildings can turn from the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases to become a net provider of sustainable energy. ICTs role in providing the world with passive, and net producing, buildings should be documented and guidelines provided.
o Many low carbon ICT solutions are already in use by both cities and companies, but their contribution to reducing emissions is often not understood. Handbooks for cities and companies should be developed in order to explain what contributions smart ICT solutions can play.

Op-ed China Daily: Smart cities needed to save our planet 外籍专家：希望中国成为发展低碳城市的坚强践行者

This is my op-ed article about cities in today's China Daily. [Updated 090824 with link to a Chinese version, also pasted in below the English version]. The role of cities will be key in the coming years. I hope that the negotiations in Copenhagen and the implementation of the stimulus packages (China is very interesting with respect to low carbon stimulus) will focus more on concrete action where cities - and companies - that see opportunities with a low carbon development are supported.

Dongmei Chen from WWF China has been a great inspiration for the ideas - and concrete work - with Low Carbon Cities in China. She is a real low carbon hero. I look forward to work more intensively with her, and other "low carbon city leaders" all around the world. Interesting things are in the pipeline...

Smart cities needed to save our planet
By Dennis Pamlin (China Daily)
Updated: 2009-08-06 07:48

So far most of the focus in the climate discussions has been on big polluting industries. The reason for that is we have approached climate change as a problem. This perspective is leading us toward trade conflicts with entities with unsustainable consumption levels and blaming those with high greenhouse gas (GHG) emitting industries. This could be avoided if we shift to a solution perspective and focus on the opportunities for cities.

Last year was the first time in human history when more than half of the world's population was living in urban, not rural, areas. This trend will continue and in 40 years 70 percent of the world's population will be living in cities. China will lead this development in many ways, with 70 percent of its population living in cities in about 30 years.

Cities are the main destination for investments and centers of innovations. And whether we will destroy or save the planet depends on toward where those investments and innovations are directed: high- or low- carbon development.

To turn cities into solution providers we must move beyond the simplified perspective that have dominated the climate change debate so far, especially in the West. The focus on problems has resulted in a situation where almost all of the work is invested in house-keeping measures to reduce direct GHG emissions in cities. This is not unimportant; it is just one part of a much bigger picture.

A strategy to support low-carbon city development must include at least four factors. We need cities that can do all things well, but right now we also need cities that focus on one of the factors and become world leaders in it.

The most obvious area, and where almost all focus is today, is direct emissions from cities. Cleaning your house is always a good thing. Cities should develop strategies to reduce direct emissions from buildings and transport and all other significant sources. What is important is setting targets and formulating strategies that actually reduce GHG emissions and not just move them to another place.

Ensuring continued focus on energy efficiency and new smart system solutions instead of only looking at decreased use of coal and oil is important. Projects like Shanghai's initiative of building smart buildings is very interesting and would help create a low-carbon 21st century infrastructure based on broadband communications instead of roads and airports.

The second area that must be addressed to ensure that GHG emission problems are not just moved from one place to another is "embedded emissions".

Embedded emissions are those that have been released in order to produce something. If a city is moving a steel plant because it emits huge volumes of carbon but keeps on using as much steel as before then the problem has not been solved; it has only been moved.

Many cities in the rich world that talk about low-carbon development ignore the goods with significant amounts of embedded carbon they import. Research shows emissions a country like Sweden is responsible for would be double if its imports are included. The reason is that Sweden, like other Western countries, exports less-carbon intensive goods than it imports.

The Chinese government has issued regulations to discourage export of energy intensive products and support a low-carbon lifestyle, offering a unique opportunity for its cities to review their imports and exports from a climate perspective.

A very important but still not very well known climate aspect in cities is export of low-carbon solutions. A city is an active part of the global economy, and since there is an urgent need for low-carbon solutions it must support companies that export them.

An export perspective allows cities to focus on companies providing low-carbon solutions and how promoting a low-carbon development can create jobs. Obviously there is a link between direct GHG emissions and the export of low-carbon solutions. If a market is created for new smart solutions in a city, the companies that provide them can first grow in the domestic market and then become important exporters of low-carbon solutions.

If cities become providers of low-carbon solutions they can become "climate positive". Such cities would contribute to more emission reductions from the use of the solutions they export than the GHG they emit. In the future, climate-positive cities could become the most important solution providers on the planet.

Baoding in Hebei province may be well known for its potential to become the world's leading climate-positive city, but it is not the only Chinese city that holds such a promise. Dezhou in Shandong province is one. Products made in these cities are supplied to the domestic as well as the international markets.

Finally, it is important for cities to have a strategy that support multifunctional solutions. While climate change is important, it is not the only challenge we face.

Our efforts to reduce GHG emissions should also help solve other problems.

Solar solutions, for example, can help provide solutions for desalination plants and farming. Some interesting projects are in progress in Wuxi, Jiangsu province, and Suntech is developing integrated solutions that allow desalination and cleaning of water at the same time as providing clean and renewable energy. These solutions would be good not just for the climate, but also increase food production, reduce poverty and help avoid conflicts.

Let's hope Chinese cities become a strong voice for a solution agenda. A lot is already going on in China, but these initiatives still need a stronger international voice.

The author is adviser to various companies, governments and NGOs.

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外籍专家：希望中国成为发展低碳城市的坚强践行者

中国日报网中国在线消息：英文《中国日报》8月6日言论版头条：我们始终将气候问题看作一个全人类共同面对的重大问题，因此目前关于气候问题的讨论多集中于如何限制大型污染行业的发展上。我们的注意力从而被引向了能源消耗实体间的贸易冲突，指责那些温室气体排放大户。如果我们能够转变一下思路，把关注点转向城市，考虑如何利用城市发展中的机遇解决气候问题，那么完全可以避免此前对污染行业的片面指责，更加理性地解决这一问题。

去年，城市人口在人类历史上首次多于农村人口。今后40年，这种趋势仍将继续，70％的世界人口将居住在城市地区。在这场蔚为壮观的城市化运动中，中国在许多方面都将引领世界潮流。大约30年后，中国这个传统意义上农业国家的城市人口将占总人口的70％。

城市是人类物质投资和智力创新的中心。这颗星球的命运如何取决于我们将这些投资和创新引向何方。目前有两种选择摆在面前，是继续走高碳发展老路，还是转向低碳发展的新途。为了充分发挥城市在解决气候问题中的关键作用，我们必须超越过去简单化的思路，重视打压高碳而忽视低碳发展的思维模式长久以来成为统治全球气候问题谈论的终极逻辑，尤其是在西方世界。这一逻辑催生的解决方案多集中在投资研发能够直接降低温室气体排放量的家用产品和生产技术上。尽管这些对于解决气候问题十分重要，但并不能就此掩盖问题的全貌，更不应该让我们忽视探求其他解决方法的可能。

发展低碳城市的战略至少包括四个主要方面。我们需要那些运转起来有条不紊的城市，但也更加迫切地需要能够切实践行低碳战略的新型城市，并且希望看到这些城市能够在不久的将来成为人类社会发展潮流的引领者。

今天，几乎所有的注意力都集中在城市直接排放的温室气体上。这是解决气候问题最引人注意的领域。自家房屋打扫得干干净净的，让人心情舒畅。城市也应制定旨在限制建筑物、交通及其他重要温室气体排放源的战略。但减少直接排放的同时更要注意不能将碳排放通过其他实物形式转移到其他地方，从而造成隐性温室气体排放。注意提高能源利用效率，制定合理的、系统的解决方案要比仅仅盯住煤炭和石油使用重要得多。上海新近出台的建设环保型住宅的计划具有重大的现实意义。21世纪低碳型建筑由宽带光缆连接，而非像现在这样强烈依赖于公路走向和机场布局。

解决温室气体排放问题的第二个重要方面是“嵌入式排放”。这种排放产生于产品制造环节。如果一座城市因为减排需要搬迁一家钢铁厂，但依然无法减轻对钢铁产品的需求，那么搬迁并没有从根本上解决排放问题，只不过是将温室气体转移到了另外一个地方。西方许多城市提倡低碳型发展，但都忽视了存在于他们进口商品中的巨大碳含量。研究表明，即使像瑞典这样的国家，如果将其进口产品中的碳含量计算在内，那么其温室气体排放量是其本身直接排放量的两倍。西方发达国家大量进口高碳产品，却很少制造或者出口这样的产品。

中国政府已经发布了有关限制能源密集型产品出口及支持低碳型生活的规定。中国城市也开始从气候和环境的角度重新考量它们的进口与出口。针对气候问题，城市可以切实做一些重要的工作，但这些工作目前还远未得到人们的重视，其中之一就是生产并出口低碳型产品。直接温室气体排放与低碳产品的生产之间存在密切联系。城市是全球经济中的最活跃的部分。低碳型产品需求量巨大，城市应当大力支持生产这种产品的公司。国内及海外市场的巨大需求也必定促使相关生产商加大研发力度，努力争夺市场份额，同时也有利于为城市创造大量就业机会。

如果城市本身成为低碳产品的提供者，那么它们就可以为解决气候问题作出积极贡献。出口低碳产品将大大降低城市的碳排放量，甚至比直接减排措施更加有效。这种低碳型城市未来必将成为解决全球气候问题的关键所在。河北省保定市具有成为低碳城市的巨大潜力，像这样的中国城市还有很多，山东省德州市就是另外一例。这些中国内陆城市生产的产品大量出口到国际市场，地理位置不会妨碍其成为国际低碳城市的步伐。因而，中国在发展低碳城市方面潜力巨大，完全有理由凭借其在国际市场上的地位，为解决气候问题作出更大贡献。

最后，城市也应当制定合理的战略计划支持综合型环保产品的研发和生产。气候问题并不是当今人类面对的唯一挑战。我们在着力应对温室气体排放同时，还应注意解决其他重大问题。例如，太阳能对海水淡化和农业生产都具有十分重要的意义。江苏省无锡市就在进行一系列有益尝试。无锡尚德太阳能电力有限公司（Suntech）正在开发一项综合技术，淡化净化海水的同时提供清洁和可再生能源。类似的技术和产品不仅有利于解决气候问题，而且可以帮助提高粮食产量，减少贫困人口，甚至避免地区冲突。

我们希望中国能够成为发展低碳城市的强力支持者和践行者。尽管中国已经在这一领域做了相当多的工作，但这些做法和计划依然需要更好地向国际社会进行传播和推广，让所有国家都充分意识到低碳型发展的重要意义。（作者为世界自然基金会顾问 Dennis Pamlin 编辑 裴培 张峰）

Senior Associate at CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

From 1st of August 2009 to the 1st of August 2010 I will be a senior associate at CASS (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences). I really look forward to this

The research will focus on how a transition to a resource efficient society can create opportunities, especially for China and Chinese companies. Urban areas are a key focus and particularly how investments can transform the existing carbon/natural resource intensive 20th century infrastructure to a low carbon/resource efficient 21st century infrastructure. How to measure savings and reductions from different policies and technologies is a theme that runs through all the work. Converging trends and converging solutions/technologies are the two starting points for the research. The set of ideas that will be explored are all collected under the heading “21st Century Frontiers” to symbolize that the research areas are exploring opportunities that are just emerging or soon will emerge, rather that existing challenges and opportunities.

The work will focus on the following areas:

- Transformative changes in society
How significant changes in society can be calculated and assessed. Most of the methodologies today focus on incremental changes where the rest if society remains the same. This work will develop models that also include the underlying infrastructure and how different choices affect this underlying infrastructure through dynamic effects.

- Emerging technologies
How it is possible to calculate and assess the impact of threshold events, especially those resulting of convergence of different technologies (such as IT, Nanotechnology and Biotechnology). Of particular interest are methodologies that allow for assessment of “high impact/low probability” events.

- Low carbon/resource efficient lifestyles
How different choices of individuals, companies and governments can be assessed in relation to a sustainable lifestyle (i.e. a lifestyle that is possible for nine billion people to live). How information can be presented in a way that allow it to be used for decision making also under time pressure is of particular interest. What values that support a low carbon lifestyle is particularly important for this work.

- International economic architecture
How different initiatives can be developed in order for an international economic architecture to support a low carbon and resource efficient economy.

- Business models for a harmonious future
How business can develop tools and standards that allow them to assess their positive contribution to a low carbon/ resource efficient development. Instead of only focusing on companies as problems that should reduce their emissions this research focus on developing tools that allow companies to report the emissions reductions they

- Low carbon city development
How cities development can be measured, not just the direct emissions, but also aspects such as embedded carbon and consequences for export (e.g. so that a city can account for export of sustainable solutions).

The research will both support ongoing work in CASS as well as explore future opportunities for research. Strengthening the international profile and credibility of CASS is important and will be part of the assessment when the projects are evaluated.